Tristán Suárez vs Almirante Brown: match statistics

Tristán Suárez make significantly better use of home advantage: they win 45% of their home matches and score an average of 1.00 goals per game there, while Almirante Brown win just 18% of their away fixtures and average only 0.45 goals per match. The hosts are also in excellent current form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches with a 7:2 goal difference, whereas the visitors recorded 2 wins and 3 draws during the same period. Tristán Suárez’s home defence concedes an average of just 0.55 goals and keeps a clean sheet in 64% of matches, which is particularly significant given that Almirante Brown fail to score in 55% of their away games. The hosts also create slightly better chances, posting an average xG of 1.26 compared with the visitors’ 1.08, while opponents allow their rivals an xG of 1.37. The high 45% draw rate for both teams in the relevant home and away data increases the likelihood of a closely contested match, but Tristán Suárez’s overall advantage points towards a narrow home win.

BTTS - No is strongly supported by the very low figures recorded by both teams: Tristán Suárez have seen BTTS in 23% of their matches, while Almirante Brown stand at 27%, compared with 41% for the league as a whole. The visitors average just 0.45 goals per away match and have failed to score in 55% of such games, while the hosts keep a clean sheet in 62% of their home fixtures. Recent defensive form also supports a scenario in which at least one team fails to score: across their last five matches, Tristán Suárez have conceded 2 goals, while Almirante Brown have conceded just 1. Although the hosts have a higher average xG, 1.48 compared with the visitors’ 1.08, their finishing and the opponents’ low scoring output point more towards a 1:0 or 0:0 result than goals at both ends.

This is expected to be a very tight match: under 2.5 goals was recorded in 85% of Tristán Suárez matches and 82% of Almirante Brown matches, compared with the league average of 68%. An even stronger signal concerns the 3.5-goal line, which no away match surpassed, while the hosts stayed below it in 92% of cases. Almirante Brown score just 0.45 goals per match on average, with 55% of matches ending without scoring, while Tristán Suárez concede only 0.46 goals. In their last five matches, the two teams conceded just 3 goals combined, while the share of games with over 2.5 goals was 20% and 0%, respectively. The 1.05:0.45 prediction gives a total of 1.50 goals, which is why Under 3.5 has the strongest statistical edge.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Tristán Suárez win, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 77% of their matches, compared with 55% for Almirante Brown. The first halves are expected to be very cagey: the hosts average 0.31 goals in them and the visitors 0.36, while the combined average for both teams does not exceed 0.54 and 0.45 goals, respectively. After the break, Tristán Suárez’s advantage increases significantly, as they average 0.77 goals compared with just 0.09 for Almirante Brown, who also concede 0.55 goals per match during that period. The hosts have won 62% of their matches this season and average 2.08 points per game, compared with 18% wins and 1.00 point per game for the visitors. The xG figures also favour the home side, who create chances worth 1.48 xG compared with their opponents’ 1.08 xG. Therefore, the most likely outcome is a turnaround after the change of ends: X/1.