Tristán Suárez vs Quilmes: match statistics

Tristán Suárez are clear favourites at home: they have won 53% of their home matches and lost just 7%, while Quilmes have won only 7% of their away games and lost 67%. The hosts concede an average of 0.47 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 67% of those matches, making life particularly difficult for visitors who fail to score in 67% of their away fixtures. Although Quilmes create slightly more chances according to xG (1.41 away compared with 1.24 for the hosts at home), they score an average of just 0.73 goals, against 1.20 for Tristán Suárez, pointing to weaker finishing. The hosts have remained unbeaten and kept a clean sheet in their last five matches, while the visitors have suffered three defeats and conceded five goals. A draw remains a realistic possibility given the hosts' 40% home draw rate and the fact that they have scored only three goals in their last five outings, but their defensive record and Quilmes' away-day struggles point towards a Tristán Suárez win.

The strongest signal points to Quilmes failing to score: the visitors have been shut out in 67% of their away matches, while Tristán Suárez have kept a clean sheet in 63% of their home games. The hosts concede an average of just 0.38 goals at home and have not conceded in their last 5 matches; Quilmes have averaged 0.6 goals over that same period. BTTS - Yes has landed in only 19% of Tristán Suárez’s home matches and 27% of Quilmes’s away matches, while neither team has seen both sides score in their last 5 matches. Quilmes’s xG of 1.83 over the last 5 matches offers some counterbalance, but given the visitors’ actual scoring record and the hosts’ defensive strength, the more likely outcome is BTTS - No, meaning at least one team will fail to score.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: all of Tristán Suárez’s home matches and 80% of Quilmes’ away matches finished with no more than three goals. The hosts concede an average of just 0.38 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 63% of matches, while the visitors score an average of 0.73 goals away and fail to score in 67% of matches. Tristán Suárez have conceded no goals in their last five matches, and both teams have averaged 0.6 goals per match over that period. Although Quilmes’ away xG over their last five matches stands at 1.83, the teams’ scoring efficiency and results support a cautious forecast of 1.80 total goals; therefore, the 3.5 line offers a clearer signal than the 2.5 line.

The strongest single scenario is Tristán Suárez leading at the break and maintaining that advantage until full time: the hosts led at half-time in 38% of matches, while Quilmes were trailing at that stage in 47%. The hosts concede an average of just 0.06 goals before the break and keep a clean sheet in that period in 94% of matches, limiting the visitors’ chances of taking an early lead. Over the full match, Tristán Suárez win 56% of the time and concede an average of 0.38 goals, while Quilmes lose 67% of their matches and concede an average of 1.4 goals. However, a half-time draw remains a significant alternative, as the hosts went into the break level in 56% of matches and have scored an average of just 0.6 goals per game across their last five.