Tukums vs Super Nova: match statistics
Tukums vs Super Nova: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tukums played Super Nova in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 1 July 2026. Venue: Tukuma pilsētas stadions. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Tukums: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Super Nova: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tukums scores 1.75 and concedes 1.95 goals per match. Super Nova scores 1.00 and concedes 1.60. League average: 2.98 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tukums 90%, Super Nova 60%. Over 2.5: Tukums 75%, Super Nova 55%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Tukums has higher xG: 1.43 vs 1.12. Tukums: 12.1 shots per match, Super Nova: 8.3.
Match halves
Tukums: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.90. Super Nova: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.40.
Goals by minute
Tukums: 76-90+ (11 goals). Super Nova: 16-30 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.98 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 6 previous H2H matches were available: 1-3-2. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 83%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win for Tukums, primarily due to a clear offensive edge in home matches: Tukums averages 11.4 shots per home game, 5.2 on target, with an 18% conversion rate and 2.1 goals per home match, while Super Nova away averages only 8.82 shots, 3.45 on target and 0.91 goals per match with a 10% conversion. In the last 5 matches Tukums scored 6 and conceded 12, averaging 0.8 points per match, whereas Super Nova scored 3 and conceded 11, averaging just 0.2 points per match in that period. Regarding quality of chances, average xG for the home side in home fixtures is 1.39 versus 1.2 xG for the away side, and Tukums has 0% matches without scoring at home, while Super Nova failed to score in 36% of their away matches — this further favors the hosts. Both defenses are, however, prone to errors: Tukums concedes 1.4 goals per home match on average, and Super Nova 1.09 away, so I expect an open game with a home advantage. Considering the shot dominance, superior efficiency (18% vs 10%) and no scoreless home matches for the hosts, I assess the probabilities as 55% for Tukums, 25% for a draw and 20% for Super Nova.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes because Tukums has a season BTTS rate of 89% versus Super Nova’s 36%, and in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in 80% and 60% of games respectively. Tukums concedes an average of 2.22 goals per game over the season and 2.4 in the last 5 matches, and has recorded no clean sheets all season (0% clean sheets), which clearly increases the likelihood of the visitors scoring. Super Nova has a seasonal scoring average of 0.91 goals and xG 1.2 per game and has scored 3 goals in the last 5, but also conceded an average of 2.2 goals in those five matches, so they both score and concede. Additionally, Tukums has a higher shot conversion rate (15% vs 10%) and a similar number of shots on target (3.44 vs 3.45), while opponents generate on average 1.93 xG against Tukums, suggesting an open game with goals at both ends. Considering these figures and the league goals average of 2.96, I assign BTTS 80% and No 20%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Tukums at home records 100% of matches with at least 2 goals, averaging 1.11 scored and 2.22 conceded per game; Super Nova has 64% of matches with ≥2 goals, averaging 0.91 scored and 1.09 conceded. xG for both teams are 1.02 (Tukums) and 1.20 (Super Nova), with xG against 1.93 for Tukums and 1.49 for Super Nova; a simple aggregation yields expected 1.26 goals for the home side and 1.57 for the away side, total 2.83 goals. In the last 5 matches Tukums scored 6 and conceded 12 (1.2 and 2.4 on average), Super Nova scored 3 and conceded 11 (0.6 and 2.2), and the share of matches >2.5 was 80% and 60%, which increases the likelihood of at least three goals. Based on this I estimate Over 1.5 at around 82% (Under 18%), Over 2.5 at 63% (Under 37%), and Over 3.5 as unlikely (~18% Over vs 82% Under). Therefore the strongest and most certain signal is Over 1.5 (recommended bet) — Tukums’ 100% home record for matches with ≥2 goals and the expected 2.83 total goals support taking that line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Super Nova appears to be the favorite: the visitors win 45% of matches versus 11% for the hosts, they have xG_for 1.20 versus 1.02 and concede on average 1.09 goals per match compared to 2.22 conceded by Tukums. At half-time the stats point to a draw or a lead for the away side — Tukums lead at the break in only 22% of fixtures and are losing at half-time in 44%, while Super Nova are level at half-time in 55% and leading in 18%, which averaged gives roughly a 31% chance that the visitors will be leading after 45 minutes. The second half favors the visitors: second-half points for Super Nova are 1.18 versus 1.00 for the hosts, and the percentage of clean second halves is 55% vs 33%, so the visitors more often hold the result. Additionally, Tukums have a high home rate of both teams scoring (BTTS 89%) and on average concede 1.33 goals before the break, which facilitates the away side taking the lead. Overall the strongest signal is 2/2 (visitors lead at the break and win) — in my model this scenario has about a 24% probability, ahead of X/2 (~21%) and X/1 (~15%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tukums | Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tukums is 300% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Tukums · 0.2 pts / match - Super Nova
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tukums is 75% better for: goals scored per match.
1.75 goals / match - Tukums · 1 goals / match - Super Nova
Super Nova is 22% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.95 goals / match - Tukums · 1.6 goals / match - Super Nova
Tukums scores in 95% of matches (19 of 20 matches), while Super Nova keeps a clean sheet in 20% (4 of 20 matches).
Super Nova scores in 75% of matches (15 of 20 matches), while Tukums keeps a clean sheet in 5% (1 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tukums
Over / Under - Super Nova
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tukums - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 15%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Super Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tukums
Super Nova
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Tukums | Liga | Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.70 | 2.98 | ▼ 2.60 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 90% | 56% | ▲ 60% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 75% | 54% | • 55% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 5% | 24% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 90% | 76% | ▼ 65% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 90% | 84% | • 85% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (6): Tukums 1 - 3 - 2 Super Nova. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 83% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tukums vs Super Nova?
The Virsliga match finished Tukums 1:2 Super Nova. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tukums and Super Nova?
In the last 6 head-to-head matches Tukums won 1, Super Nova won 2 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 83% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tukums vs Super Nova?
Tukums score 1.75 goals per game on average and Super Nova 1.00. The Virsliga average is 2.98 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 90% of Tukums's matches and 60% of Super Nova's.
What form are Tukums and Super Nova in?
Over the last 5 games Tukums have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Super Nova 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tukums vs Super Nova?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.