Ulm vs Havelse: match statistics

Both teams occupy neighboring positions in the table (Ulm 18th, Havelse 17th), but the metrics point to different strengths: Ulm concedes an average of 1.94 goals per home match with xG against 1.60, while Havelse concedes 2.38 goals on the road with xG against 2.13. In attack the visitors look better – Havelse have scored 49 goals this season versus Ulm’s 42 and have 11 goals in the last 5 matches compared to the hosts’ 6; average xG for Havelse is 1.50 versus 1.44 for Ulm. Ulm, however, have a defensive edge at home: clean sheets in 19% of home matches against just 6% away clean sheets for Havelse, and an average possession of 51% helps control the game. In the last 5 matches Havelse have 3 wins and average 1.8 points per game, while Ulm have 2 wins and 1.4 points per game, giving the visitors better offensive momentum but also greater vulnerability at the back. Therefore I project a balanced match with a slight advantage to the hosts due to a more stable home defense: Ulm 45%, draw 30%, Havelse 25%.

Statistics clearly favor BTTS: Ulm has a seasonal BTTS rate of 65%, Havelse 88%, and the league 64%, providing a strong impulse for both teams to score. Both sides concede heavily — Ulm averages 2.06 goals per match, Havelse 2.38 — and clean sheets are rare (12% and 6%), so a No Goal outcome for either side looks unlikely. In the last 5 matches Ulm records BTTS 80% (scoring on average 1.2 and conceding 1.8), while Havelse in their last 5 matches scores 2.2 and concedes 2.2, which further increases the chance of goals from both sides. xG confirms this trend: Ulm xG_for 1.36 and xG_against 1.79, Havelse xG_for 1.50 and xG_against 2.13 — both teams create and allow scoring opportunities. On this basis I rate BTTS as more likely: 80% YES, 20% NO.

The xG and defensive-stat driven model indicates Ulm has an attacking xG of 1.36 and concedes on average 2.06 goals per match, while Havelse has an attacking xG of 1.50 and concedes 2.38; the averaged forecast is about 1.74 goals for Ulm and 1.65 for Havelse, totaling 3.39 goals. Ulm averages 11.71 shots (3.41 on target), and Havelse 12.75 (4.44 on target) with conversion rates of 13% and 12%, which supports the realism of ~3.4 goals in the game. Season percentages show Ulm has 100% of matches over 1.5 goals and Havelse 94%, and the league averages 3.13 goals per match, so Over 1.5 is heavily favored. The 2.5 line also has solid backing (seasonal Over2.5: 65% and 69%; last 5 matches Over2.5: 60% and 80%), therefore I assess Over 2.5 at around a 68% probability. Over 3.5 is less certain (seasonal 47% and 56%; last 5 matches yield an average goals ~3.4), so I slightly prefer the Under on 3.5; the best and strongest value is the Over on the 1.5 line.

The most likely combination is Havelse leading at the break and a turnaround by Ulm: Havelse led at half-time in 31% of away matches, while Ulm led at the break in only 12% of games. Ulm frequently trail at half-time (53% of matches), but score an average of 1.12 goals in second halves and have accumulated 20 points after the break (an average of 1.18 points per second half), indicating strong finishing power. Havelse score early (4 goals in minutes 0–15) yet concede on average 1.5 goals after half-time and 2.38 goals per match this season, which makes holding a lead difficult. Additionally, Ulm have won more often over the season (29% wins) than Havelse (13%), and both teams very frequently record goals after the break (Ulm have at least one goal in 100% of second halves, Havelse in 94%), so the HT/FT scenario HT=1 and FT=2 appears strongest.