Ulsan vs Sangju Sangmu: match statistics

Ulsan have a clear attacking advantage at home: they average 1.67 goals, create 1.84 xG and register 5.17 shots on target per match, compared with Sangju Sangmu’s 1.00 goal, 1.35 xG and 3.54 shots on target away from home. However, the hosts are highly vulnerable defensively, conceding an average of 1.75 goals at home with 1.66 xG allowed to opponents and keeping a clean sheet in only 17% of matches. Sangju Sangmu score infrequently, netting just 3 goals in their last five matches, but they have also conceded only 3 goals over the same period. The visitors draw particularly often away from home, sharing the points in 54% of such matches, while Ulsan have lost as many as 50% of their home games. Both teams have collected 1.2 points per match over their last five league fixtures, so Ulsan’s superior chance quality could be neutralized by the visitors’ disciplined defense, making a draw the most likely outcome.

The current-form signal points towards BTTS - No: in their last 5 matches, both teams recorded BTTS in only 40% of games, compared with the league average of 50%. Sangju Sangmu scored just 3 goals during this period, averaging 0.6 per match, while conceding only 0.6 goals per game. The visitors have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their matches this season and failed to score in 31%, clearly increasing the likelihood that one side will remain goalless. Ulsan have a very poor 9% clean-sheet rate and a season BTTS rate of 73%, but their current results and the opponents' low attacking efficiency outweigh these figures in favour of a No Goal scenario for at least one team.

The profile of both teams clearly points toward a limited number of goals: 91% of Ulsan’s matches and 85% of Sangju Sangmu’s games finished with fewer than 3.5 goals. An even stronger signal comes from the low frequency of high-scoring results, as neither team has scored more than three goals in a single match, while their opponents have also failed to concede more than three on any occasion. Sangju Sangmu have scored just 3 goals and conceded 3 in their last five appearances, averaging 0.6 per match in both categories, which reduces the visitors’ offensive potential. Ulsan create chances worth an average of 1.61 xG, but their conversion rate is just 7%, while Sangju keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches. The combined projection of 2.25 goals leaves a clear margin below the 3.5 line, making Under 3.5 goals the best option.

A draw at half-time is the most logical starting point, as Ulsan were level at the break in 55% of their matches, compared with 54% for Sangju Sangmu. Recent form further strengthens this scenario: the hosts were level at half-time in 60% of their last five matches, while the visitors recorded this outcome in as many as 80%, with both teams averaging just 0.2 goals scored in the first half. After the break, the advantage should shift towards Sangju Sangmu, who average 0.62 goals scored and 0.46 conceded, while Ulsan concede 0.82 goals in second halves. The visitors won the second half in 38% of their matches, whereas Ulsan have not won a single one, which, combined with their seasonal win rates of 23% and 9% for the hosts, supports the HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time and a Sangju Sangmu win at full-time.