Union Berlin vs Augsburg: match statistics

Augsburg holds a clear form advantage: over the last 5 matches the visitors averaged 2.2 points per game with 3 wins and 2 draws, while Union has only 0.8 points with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses. In the last 5 rounds Union scored 8 goals (1.6 per game) and conceded 11 (2.2 per game), whereas Augsburg scored 11 (2.2 per game) and conceded 6 (1.2 per game), giving the visitors superiority both in goals scored and in limiting goals conceded. Season-to-date in home matches Union averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.63 conceded with xG for 1.45 and xG against 1.29, while Augsburg away averages 1.25 scored and 1.81 conceded with xG for 1.42 and xG against 1.73 — the quality of created chances (xG 1.45 vs 1.42) is similar, but recent results favor the visitors. Union has better shot conversion at home (11% vs 9%) and 19% of home matches with a clean sheet versus 0% clean sheets for Augsburg away; however the visitors register more shots on target (4.38 vs 4.06) and hold the points advantage over the last five matches (2.2 vs 0.8), which supports predicting an Augsburg win.

Both teams had BTTS in 5 of their last 5 matches (100% for both Union and Augsburg), which is the strongest signal that both sides will score. Seasonally Union has BTTS in 59% of matches, Augsburg in 69%, with the league average at 62%, so historically both teams more often than not concede. Offensive stats and xG confirm this: Union averages 1.47 goals and generates xG 1.49 with 5.06 shots on target, Augsburg averages 1.25 goals and xG 1.42 with 4.38 shots on target; meanwhile Union concedes 1.65 (xG against 1.54) and Augsburg concedes 1.81 (xG against 1.73), which favors goals from both sides. Additionally, Augsburg has 0% clean sheets this season, Union only 29%, and in the last 5 matches Union conceded on average 2.2 goals while Augsburg scored on average 2.2 goals (11 goals in 5), increasing BTTS probability. Considering 100% BTTS in the last 5, seasonal 59%/69%, high xG and Augsburg’s lack of clean sheets, I favor BTTS - Yes with an estimated 78% vs 22% for No.

Expected goals are 1.61 for Union (average attack xG 1.49 and xG conceded vs Augsburg 1.73) and 1.48 for Augsburg (average attack xG 1.42 and xG conceded vs Union 1.54), totaling 3.09 goals. This season the Over 1.5 line hit in 76% of Union’s matches and 94% of Augsburg’s matches, and in the last 5 fixtures the Over 2.5 share was 100% for Union and 80% for Augsburg, increasing the probability of more than two goals. Both teams frequently score: BTTS occurs in 59% of Union’s games and 69% of Augsburg’s, and average shots on target 5.06 (Union) vs 4.38 (Augsburg) with conversion rates of 11% and 9% suggest real chance conversion. With a league average of 3.22 goals per game and our expected 3.09, the strongest signal is Over, especially the 1.5 line, therefore I recommend Over 1.5; Over 2.5 also carries significant probability (~70%).

The strongest signal points to 2/2: in the last 5 matches Augsburg led at the break in 60% of games (3 of 5) and averaged 1.6 goals by half-time versus only 0.2 for Union, which favors the visitors at the end of the first 45 minutes. Over the same period Augsburg won 60% of matches and recorded no defeats (0%), while Union displays weaker form, hence the visitors’ form advantage. However, Union shows clear strength in the second half — they score on average 0.88 goals after the break versus Augsburg’s 0.56 and have collected 25 points in second halves this season compared to the visitors’ 12 points — which gives them a chance for a turnaround. Considering the 1.6 vs 0.2 first-half goals (last 5), Augsburg’s superior first-half efficiency and form, and Union’s better second-half metrics, the most likely and strongest scenario is 2/2.