Union Omaha vs One Knoxville: match statistics

Union Omaha sit in 2nd place, have recorded 16 wins this season, and remain unbeaten at home, where they have won 69% of their matches and drawn 31%. At home, the hosts average 2.15 goals with an xG of 2.09, while One Knoxville average 1.75 goals and an xG of 1.55 away from home. Union Omaha also hold a clear advantage in chance creation, averaging 17.31 shots and 6.62 shots on target per match, compared with 12.58 and 5.00 for the visitors. However, One Knoxville arrive in good form, having won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 9 goals in that run, so their chances of earning a point should not be underestimated. The hosts’ home defence concedes just 0.92 goals per match, while the visitors allow opponents an xG of 1.50, giving Union Omaha strong grounds to secure the win.

Both teams regularly feature in matches with goals at both ends: Union Omaha’s BTTS rate stands at 69%, while One Knoxville’s is 67%, compared with the league average of 60%. The visitors are particularly reliable offensively, averaging 1.75 goals per match, and 1.8 goals across their last five games, recording BTTS in 80% of those outings. Union Omaha creates plenty of chances at home, averaging 1.87 xG, 16 shots, and 6 shots on target per match, while One Knoxville’s defence allows an average of 1.50 xG. The hosts should also have opportunities to score, as One Knoxville keeps a clean sheet in only 25% of matches, while Union Omaha fails to score in just 15% of games. A Goal/Goal scenario is therefore clearly more likely than BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team fails to score.

Both teams regularly feature in matches with at least two goals: the Over 1.5 line was covered in 77% of Union Omaha matches and 83% of One Knoxville matches. Their attacking potential is supported by average xG figures of 1.87 for the hosts and 1.55 for the visitors, while their opponents allow 1.42 and 1.50 xG, respectively. Union Omaha averages 16.0 shots, including 6.0 on target, while One Knoxville scores an average of 1.75 goals per match, making a both-teams-to-score scenario realistic; the BTTS rates stand at 69% and 67%. The hosts’ recent form has been slightly more conservative, with only 20% of their last five matches going over 2.5 goals, so higher lines offer less value. The strongest pick is Over 1.5, as it requires just two goals with a projected total of 2.80 goals and very high historical hit rates for this line.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a One Knoxville victory at full-time, as Union Omaha were level after 45 minutes in 77% of their matches, compared with 64% for One Knoxville; in their last five games, the visitors recorded a half-time draw in as many as 80% of matches. The first halves of both teams tend to be low-scoring: the hosts average 0.62 goals in the opening 45 minutes and the visitors 0.73, while the corresponding total-goals averages are 1.08 and 1.09, respectively. After the break, One Knoxville show a greater advantage, averaging 1.09 goals compared with Union Omaha’s 0.85 and winning the second half in 55% of matches, versus 38% for the hosts. The visitors are also more effective over the season as a whole, averaging 1.83 points and 1.75 goals per match, while Union Omaha record 1.69 points and 1.46 goals. The hosts’ edge in chance creation, reflected in an xG of 1.87 versus 1.55, reduces confidence in the selection, but One Knoxville’s stronger post-half-time form and 60% win rate in their last five appearances support the X/2 outcome.