Universidad Católica vs La Serena: match statistics
Universidad Católica vs La Serena: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Universidad Católica played La Serena in Primera División (Chile). The match was played on 26 July 2026. Venue: Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo. Final score: 3:3.
Current form
Universidad Católica: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. La Serena: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Universidad Católica scores 2.33 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. La Serena scores 1.40 and concedes 1.67. League average: 2.81 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Universidad Católica 67%, La Serena 53%. Over 2.5: Universidad Católica 73%, La Serena 53%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Universidad Católica has higher xG: 1.42 vs 1.26. Universidad Católica: 13.5 shots per match, La Serena: 11.5.
Match halves
Universidad Católica: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.27. La Serena: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.60.
Goals by minute
Universidad Católica: 31-45+ (11 goals). La Serena: 31-45+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.81 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Universidad Católica is the clear favorite: they sit 2nd in the table, have scored 35 goals this season with 11 in the last 5 matches, winning 4 of those 5 (form: wwwwl). La Serena are 12th, have 21 goals this season, only 2 wins in the last 5 and conceded 6 goals in those five matches. Home numbers favor the hosts — on average 2.86 goals per match, 5.14 shots on target and a 20% conversion rate, while the visitors away average 1.14 goals per match, 3.71 shots on target and a 9% conversion; additionally the hosts have 0% clean sheets vs La Serena’s 29% of matches without scoring. Defensively the advantage is visible in xG and goals conceded: Universidad Católica concede 1.29 goals at home on average and have average xG against of 1.02 with xG for of 1.45, whereas La Serena concede 2.29 away and allow xG against 1.65 while generating xG of 1.28. The combination of better finishing (20% vs 9%), higher possession (55% vs 50%), superior home goal difference (+11 vs -8) and clearly better recent form over the last 5 matches (2.4 pts/match vs 1.4 pts/match) leads me to predict a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I recommend BTTS - Yes with a 66% probability. Universidad Católica averages 1.63 goals at home and has recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, with averages of 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. La Serena concedes 2.29 goals per season on average and keeps a clean sheet in only 14% of matches, while scoring 1.14 goals away, which gives a realistic chance for the visitors to score. xG shows 1.23 for Católica and 1.28 for La Serena, while xG against is 1.3 for Católica and 1.65 for La Serena, suggesting greater susceptibility of the visitors to concede. Considering season BTTS rates of 50% and 57% and a league average of 49%, the strongest signal from the data indicates both teams have sufficient attacking potential and defensive vulnerabilities for both sides to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I estimate expected goals of 1.44 for Universidad Católica and 1.29 for La Serena, totaling 2.73 goals. xG inputs used are home xG 1.23 vs xG conceded by La Serena 1.65 (home average ~1.44) and away xG 1.28 vs xG conceded by Católica 1.30 (away average ~1.29). A Poisson model with λ=2.73 yields roughly a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals, about 51% for Over 2.5 goals and ~29% for Over 3.5 goals. Season metrics confirm the tendency — Over1.5 occurs in 63% of Católica’s matches and 71% of La Serena’s matches, while La Serena concedes on average 2.29 goals per game. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Católica averaged 2.2 goals and had 100% of home games with Over 2.5, so the strongest, lowest-risk signal is backing Over 1.5 at the 1.5 line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The home side led at the break in 4 of 8 matches (50%) and score an average of 1.0 goals by half-time versus 0.57 for La Serena, indicating Universidad Católica’s advantage in the first 45 minutes. In the second half the hosts concede only 0.75 goals on average (conceded_2hg_avg_home = 0.75), while La Serena concedes 1.57 goals after the break and as many as 6 goals in minutes 76–90, so the visitors’ chance of a successful comeback is low. Despite similar xG (1.23 vs 1.28), Católica have better conversion (15% vs 9%) and more shots on target (4.63 vs 3.71), and in the last 5 matches they won 4 of 5 (80%) versus La Serena’s 2 of 5 (40%), which translates into a higher probability of maintaining or increasing the lead. Therefore I allocated 40% to 1/1 as the strongest scenario; 1/X and 1/2 I rated at 8% and 2% respectively as rarer lead-loss variants. If level at half-time I assign 23% to X/1, 18% to X/X and 9% to X/2, and combinations starting with “2” I price at 0% in line with the data (trailingAtHT_home = 0%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Universidad Católica | La Serena | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Universidad Católica is 80% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Universidad Católica · 1 pts / match - La Serena
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Universidad Católica is 66% better for: goals scored per match.
2.33 goals / match - Universidad Católica · 1.4 goals / match - La Serena
Universidad Católica is 26% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.33 goals / match - Universidad Católica · 1.67 goals / match - La Serena
Universidad Católica scores in 87% of matches (13 of 15 matches), while La Serena keeps a clean sheet in 27% (4 of 15 matches).
La Serena scores in 73% of matches (11 of 15 matches), while Universidad Católica keeps a clean sheet in 20% (3 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Universidad Católica
Over / Under - La Serena
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
La Serena is 31% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.27 pts / match - Universidad Católica · 1.67 pts / match - La Serena
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Universidad Católica - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 53%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
La Serena - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 27%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 100% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (11 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Universidad Católica
La Serena
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Universidad Católica | Liga | La Serena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.67 | 2.81 | ▲ 3.07 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 50% | ▲ 53% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 73% | 54% | • 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 20% | 28% | • 27% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 87% | 71% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 75% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Universidad Católica 1 - 1 - 1 La Serena. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Universidad Católica vs La Serena?
The Primera División match finished Universidad Católica 3:3 La Serena. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad Católica and La Serena?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Universidad Católica won 1, La Serena won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Universidad Católica vs La Serena?
Universidad Católica score 2.33 goals per game on average and La Serena 1.40. The Primera División average is 2.81 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Universidad Católica's matches and 53% of La Serena's.
What form are Universidad Católica and La Serena in?
Over the last 5 games Universidad Católica have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and La Serena 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Universidad Católica vs La Serena?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Universidad Católica vs La Serena: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.