Universidad Chile vs Ñublense: match statistics

Universidad Chile have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding 5, while Ñublense have lost 4 of their 5 games, scoring 4 goals and conceding 10. At home, the hosts win 64% of their matches and average 1.91 goals, while the visitors win 36% of their away games and concede an average of 1.36 goals. Universidad Chile's advantage is also reflected in the quality of chances: their home xG is 1.93, with opponents at 0.94 xG, compared with Ñublense's away figures of 1.21 and 1.39, respectively. The hosts also average 6.55 shots on target at home, while the visitors manage 3.82 away, further supporting a Universidad Chile win.

Both teams have scored at both ends in more than half of their matches: Universidad Chile in 58% and Ñublense in 55%, compared with a league average of 52%. The hosts average 1.61 xG, while the visitors allow opponents 1.39 xG and have conceded 10 goals in their last 5 matches, which strongly supports Universidad Chile's chances of scoring. Ñublense average 1.18 goals per match, while the hosts concede 1.33; moreover, the visitors have registered 1.90 xG over their last 5 matches despite scoring just 0.8 goals per game. However, caution is warranted, as Ñublense have failed to score in 18% of their matches, while the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 25%. Overall, the seasonal data advantage and the number of chances created by the visitors point towards BTTS - Yes, although this is not a high-confidence pick.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 75% of Universidad Chile matches and 73% of Ñublense games. The hosts average 1.25 goals scored, with an xG of 1.61; they have also averaged 1.8 goals in their last 5 matches, while Ñublense have conceded 2.0. The visitors could also get on the scoresheet, averaging 1.18 goals, while Universidad Chile concede 1.33. Higher lines are less convincing: Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of the hosts’ matches and 36% of the visitors’ games, while Over 3.5 goals has landed in 33% and 18%, respectively.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as both teams went into the break level in 4 of their last 5 matches. Over that period, Universidad de Chile conceded an average of 0 goals before half-time, but scored just 0.2, which also points to a closely contested first half. The hosts have a better chance of settling the match after the break: in their last 5 games, they scored an average of 1.6 goals in the second half, while Ñublense conceded 1.4. Universidad also have a higher season xG average, at 1.61 compared with their opponents’ 1.21, and have recorded 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Ñublense have suffered 4 defeats. The X/1 scenario is not certain, however, as the visitors have averaged 0.73 goals after the break across the season, compared with 0.42 for the hosts, so the other outcomes retain a significant share of the forecast.