USM Alger vs Oued Akbou: match statistics
USM Alger vs Oued Akbou: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
USM Alger played Oued Akbou in Ligue 1 (Algeria). The match was played on 19 May 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
USM Alger: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Oued Akbou: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
USM Alger scores 1.00 and concedes 0.83 goals per match. Oued Akbou scores 1.18 and concedes 1.04. League average: 2.24 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: USM Alger 52%, Oued Akbou 54%. Over 2.5: USM Alger 26%, Oued Akbou 36%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 38%.
xG, shots and style
USM Alger has higher xG: 1.64 vs 1.20. USM Alger: 11.2 shots per match, Oued Akbou: 9.0.
Match halves
USM Alger: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.43. Oued Akbou: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.71.
Goals by minute
USM Alger: 16-30 (5 goals). Oued Akbou: 76-90+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligue 1: 2.24 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 38%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win (USM Alger): the team has won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 7 goals in that period, while Oued Akbou has only 1 win and 3 goals in their last 5. At USM’s stadium they average 14.17 shots and 6.75 shots on target per match with an average xG of 1.87, giving a clear advantage in chance creation over the visitors. The visitors on the road average 6.64 shots and 2.86 shots on target with xG 0.95 and only 1.14 average goals scored per match, so their chances created are markedly lower. Defensively the hosts concede 0.75 goals on average at home and keep 42% clean sheets, while Oued concedes 1.36 goals away and has 21% clean sheets, which gives USM the defensive edge. However, note that the hosts draw as much as 58% of their home games, so a draw remains a realistic outcome. Considering the superior xG (1.87 vs 0.95), higher number of shots on target (6.75 vs 2.86) and form (PPG 2 vs 0.8 in the last 5), I assess the probabilities as: home 55%, draw 25%, away 20%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal statistics favor the 'No' outcome: home side USM Alger concedes an average of 0.71 goals per match and keeps a clean sheet in 43% of games, while Oued Akbou concedes 1.36 on average and records only 21% clean sheets. USM creates more opportunities — 11.36 shots and 4.43 on target per game with xG 1.46 — whereas Oued Akbou averages 6.64 shots and 2.86 on target with xG 0.95, indicating a clear attacking edge for the hosts. Although the visitors have a higher season BTTS rate (64% vs 43% for the hosts), they boast a better season shot conversion (17% vs 11%), yet in the last 5 matches they score only 0.6 goals on average (last5 xG 1.05), which reduces their realistic chance of scoring. Additionally, recent xG against shows stronger defensive form for the hosts: 0.94 in the last 5 for USM versus 1.28 for Oued Akbou, and the league average BTTS is 48%, which leans toward No Goal. Therefore I assign 38% probability to BTTS - Yes and 62% to No Goal, recommending 'No' as the stronger signal based on the lower average goals conceded by the hosts (0.71), higher clean sheet rate (43% vs 21%) and the visitors' weaker scoring form (0.6 goals in the last 5 matches).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG and average-goals model yields 1.40 expected goals for USM Alger (xG_for_avg_home 1.46; last 5 matches xG 1.60) and 1.03 for Oued Akbou (xG_for_avg_away 0.95; last 5 xG 1.05), totaling 2.43 goals. With a combined λ=2.43 the estimated probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is ~70%, while the probability of 3+ goals (Over 2.5) is ≈44% and 4+ goals (Over 3.5) ≈23%. Additionally, the home side creates more chances: on average 11.36 shots and 4.43 shots on target per match vs. 6.64 and 2.86 for the visitors, and conversion rates of 11% (home) and 17% (away) indicate realistic chance conversion. Seasonal indicators confirm this picture: Over 0.5 occurred for the home team in 100% and for the away team in 93%, while Over 1.5 occurred for the away team in 64% and for the home team in 43%, further supporting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
USM Alger are the favorites: at home they win 64% of matches compared to Oued Akbou’s 21% wins, they average 2.14 points per home game versus 1.0 for the visitors, and season xG_for is 1.46 against 0.95 for the opponents. At half-time a draw is most common — hosts lead in only 36% of matches, draw at half in 43% of their games, and the visitors record a half-time draw in as many as 71% of their appearances, which makes a draw or a minimal home lead the most likely first-half outcomes. Shooting and defensive metrics, however, support maintaining the hosts’ advantage: average shots on target 4.43 vs 2.86, season average goals 1.21 vs 1.14, and the hosts concede 0.71 goals per game on average versus 1.36 for the visitors. In the last five matches USM have produced better starts in terms of half-time results (last5_HTPPG 1.2 vs 0.4 and last5_scoredAVGHT 0.8 vs 0.0), therefore I project the safest scenario is a lead at the break and a victory by full-time (selection 1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| USM Alger | Oued Akbou | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 47% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Oued Akbou is 18% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - USM Alger · 1.18 goals / match - Oued Akbou
USM Alger is 25% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.83 goals / match - USM Alger · 1.04 goals / match - Oued Akbou
USM Alger scores in 70% of matches (16 of 23 matches), while Oued Akbou keeps a clean sheet in 32% (9 of 28 matches).
Oued Akbou scores in 82% of matches (23 of 28 matches), while USM Alger keeps a clean sheet in 35% (8 of 23 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - USM Alger
Over / Under - Oued Akbou
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
USM Alger is 7% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.3 pts / match - USM Alger · 1.21 pts / match - Oued Akbou
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
USM Alger - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 26%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Oued Akbou - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
USM Alger
Oued Akbou
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligue 1).
Teams vs league
| USM Alger | Liga | Oued Akbou | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.83 | 2.24 | • 2.21 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 52% | 48% | ▲ 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 26% | 38% | ▼ 36% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 35% | 30% | ▲ 32% |
| Goal before half-time | • 65% | 64% | ▼ 61% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 52% | 71% | • 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: USM Alger 0 - 1 - 0 Oued Akbou. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of USM Alger vs Oued Akbou?
The Ligue 1 match finished USM Alger 1:0 Oued Akbou. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before USM Alger vs Oued Akbou?
USM Alger score 1.00 goals per game on average and Oued Akbou 1.18. The Ligue 1 average is 2.24 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 38% of games. Both teams score in 52% of USM Alger's matches and 54% of Oued Akbou's.
What form are USM Alger and Oued Akbou in?
Over the last 5 games USM Alger have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Oued Akbou 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for USM Alger vs Oued Akbou?
The statistical background for USM Alger vs Oued Akbou — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.