Vanraure Hachinohe vs Kataller Toyama: match statistics

Kataller Toyama sit 8th, while Vanraure Hachinohe are only 17th, highlighting a clear difference in the teams’ league positions to date. The visitors have collected 8 points from their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 2 draws, whereas the hosts have managed just 4 points after drawing four times and suffering one defeat. Toyama have scored 7 goals in this period—4 more than Hachinohe, who have found the net only 3 times. However, the visitors have conceded 8 goals across those five games, meaning a draw remains a realistic outcome. Despite this instability, their greater attacking efficiency and stronger recent results point to a narrow Kataller Toyama victory.

Both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches, providing a direct signal slightly in favor of goals for both sides. Kataller Toyama averaged 1.4 goals per match during this period, while Vanraure Hachinohe conceded only 0.8; however, the hosts generated a high 1.82 xG. Hachinohe’s chances of improving on its modest average of 0.6 goals scored are boosted by the visitors’ defensive record, with 1.6 goals conceded per match over their last five games and 8 goals conceded in total. Toyama also generated 1.82 xG, and with Hachinohe conceding four goals in five appearances, the scenario of the visitors scoring at least once remains realistic. The biggest risk to BTTS is the hosts’ low finishing efficiency, but the combination of identical high xG figures and 60% BTTS for both teams slightly favors the “Yes” option.

Data from the last five matches indicates that Vanraure Hachinohe scored an average of just 0.6 goals and conceded 0.8, limiting the hosts’ potential for a very high-scoring game. Kataller Toyama has a more open profile, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, but matches featuring at least three goals accounted for only 40% of their games. Both teams created a similar quality of chances, at 1.82 xG each, but Hachinohe converted this into just 3 goals in their last five matches. Overall, the projected total of 2.55 goals allows for a scoreline around 1:1 or 1:2, but does not support a four-goal scenario. Therefore, the clearest edge lies with Under 3.5 goals, assessed at 73%.

The strongest scenario is Kataller Toyama leading at the break and the match ending in a draw. Vanraure have been trailing at half-time in 60% of their last five matches, while Toyama have held a Half-Time lead in 40% of theirs, and the hosts have averaged just 0.2 goals before the break. The visitors have been more effective over the entire recent period, scoring an average of 1.4 goals compared with Vanraure’s 0.6, but they have also conceded 1.6 goals per match. After half-time, the hosts significantly improve defensively, allowing opponents to score just 0.2 goals on average, while they have collected 1.6 points per match in this phase compared with Toyama’s 1.4. Vanraure’s high draw rate of 80% in their last five appearances supports the assessment that the hosts may complete a one-goal turnaround, but are not necessarily likely to win.