Vaprus vs Kuressaare: match statistics
Vaprus vs Kuressaare: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Vaprus played Kuressaare in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 26 June 2026. Venue: Pärnu Rannastaadion. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Vaprus: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Kuressaare: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Vaprus scores 1.25 and concedes 1.94 goals per match. Kuressaare scores 1.06 and concedes 1.63. League average: 3.05 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Vaprus 63%, Kuressaare 56%. Over 2.5: Vaprus 63%, Kuressaare 56%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
Kuressaare has higher xG: 1.39 vs 1.09. Vaprus: 7.9 shots per match, Kuressaare: 11.2.
Match halves
Vaprus: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.63. Kuressaare: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.69.
Goals by minute
Vaprus: 46-60 (5 goals). Kuressaare: 61-75 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.05 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-3. Average goals 1.80, BTTS 40%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Vaprus holds an advantage in finishing efficiency: the home conversion rate is 16% versus 8% for Kuressaare, translating into an average of 1.5 goals per game for Vaprus versus 1.0 for the visitors. Kuressaare attempts more shots (12.13 per game vs 9.38), but records fewer shots on target (3.38 vs 3.88) and underperforms their xG — visitors have an average xG of 1.45 but score only 1.0, while Vaprus posts xG 1.26 and converts 1.5. Defensively Kuressaare is weaker in expected goals conceded: xG against for the visitors is 2.21 versus 1.72 for Vaprus, and on the road they have not kept a single clean sheet (0% vs 25% for the hosts). Over the last 5 matches form is comparable — Vaprus 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses (1.4 points per game), Kuressaare 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss (1.6 points per game) — however Vaprus’s superior efficiency and lower share of scoreless games (25% vs 38%) give the hosts the edge. Considering also league position (Vaprus 6th vs Kuressaare 9th), I tip the home win and assess probabilities at 55% for Vaprus, 25% for a draw and 20% for Kuressaare.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates of 50% (Vaprus) and 63% (Kuressaare) versus a league average of 55%, indicating a moderate probability of Goal/Goal. In the last 5 matches Vaprus recorded BTTS in 80% and Kuressaare in 60% — their short-term average is 70%, clearly above season values. Offensive and defensive metrics support this trend: xG against is 1.92 (Vaprus) and 2.21 (Kuressaare), average shots 10.5 vs 12.13 and shots on target 4.13 vs 3.38, showing many chances created and conceded. Clean sheet expected occurrences are rare (Vaprus 13%, Kuressaare 0%), and over the last 5 matches Vaprus conceded on average 2.0 goals and Kuressaare 1.2, which further increases the chance of both teams scoring. Based on these figures I estimate BTTS - Yes probability at about 70% vs 30% and therefore recommend a 'yes' bet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The combined xG of both teams is 2.80 (Vaprus xG_for 1.35 vs Kuressaare xG_for 1.45), yielding an expected 2.80 goals for the match. With λ = 2.80 the Poisson model gives roughly a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals, about 53% for Over 2.5 and around 31% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is for the lower line. The league averages 3.05 goals per game, Vaprus has 50% of matches Over 2.5 this season (last 5: 80%), and Kuressaare 63% season-to-date, which further boosts the probability of the over. Both teams show poor defensive metrics (Vaprus concedes 1.38 goals, xG against 1.92; Kuressaare concedes 1.88 goals, xG against 2.21) and combined shot volumes of 10.5 and 12.13 with conversion rates of 11% vs 8%, so I expect goals from both sides and recommend Over 1.5 as the most likely and least risky option.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is 1/1 (Vaprus leads at the break and wins), which I assign 36%. Vaprus led at the break in 3 of 8 matches (38%), while Kuressaare never led at the break (0%) and were trailing at the break in 5 of 8 fixtures (63%). Hosts average 0.63 goals by half-time versus 0.13 for the visitors, with 12 points gained by half-time (1.5 pts per game) compared to 3 points (0.38 pts) for Kuressaare, and 75% of Vaprus matches feature a clean sheet HT versus 25% for Kuressaare, all strongly favoring a lead at the break. Over the full match Vaprus average 1.13 goals scored and concede 1.38, while Kuressaare score 1.0 and concede 1.88; additionally xG shows 1.35 vs 1.45 in attack and 1.92 vs 2.21 in defense, suggesting a weaker away defence and higher chances for the hosts to hold on to the win. As a result 1/1 receives the highest weight (36%), with other significant scenarios being X/1 15% (draw HT and home win) and 1/X 10% (lead HT and draw FT).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Vaprus | Kuressaare | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Kuressaare is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Vaprus · 1.6 pts / match - Kuressaare
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Vaprus is 18% better for: goals scored per match.
1.25 goals / match - Vaprus · 1.06 goals / match - Kuressaare
Kuressaare is 19% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.94 goals / match - Vaprus · 1.63 goals / match - Kuressaare
Vaprus scores in 75% of matches (12 of 16 matches), while Kuressaare keeps a clean sheet in 6% (1 of 16 matches).
Kuressaare scores in 56% of matches (9 of 16 matches), while Vaprus keeps a clean sheet in 25% (4 of 16 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Vaprus
Over / Under - Kuressaare
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Vaprus is 27% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.19 pts / match - Vaprus · 0.94 pts / match - Kuressaare
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Vaprus - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Kuressaare - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Vaprus
Kuressaare
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Vaprus | Liga | Kuressaare | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.19 | 3.05 | ▼ 2.69 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 55% | • 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 63% | 64% | ▼ 56% |
| Clean sheets | • 25% | 24% | ▼ 6% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 72% | ▼ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 88% | 90% | ▲ 94% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- VaprusYellow cardHendrik Vainu
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Vaprus 2 - 0 - 3 Kuressaare. Average goals 1.80, both teams scored in 40% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Vaprus vs Kuressaare?
The Meistriliiga match finished Vaprus 1:0 Kuressaare. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Vaprus and Kuressaare?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Vaprus won 2, Kuressaare won 3 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.80 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Vaprus vs Kuressaare?
Vaprus score 1.25 goals per game on average and Kuressaare 1.06. The Meistriliiga average is 3.05 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Vaprus's matches and 56% of Kuressaare's.
What form are Vaprus and Kuressaare in?
Over the last 5 games Vaprus have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Kuressaare 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Vaprus vs Kuressaare?
The statistical background for Vaprus vs Kuressaare — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.