Vaprus vs Tallinna FC Flora: match statistics

Tallinna FC Flora have a clearly superior away record: they win 70% of their matches, score an average of 1.80 goals and concede just 1.20, while Vaprus concede 1.64 goals per home game. The visitors also create significantly more chances, averaging 17.6 shots and an xG of 2.13, compared with 8.91 shots and an xG of 1.22 for the hosts. Flora’s away defence restricts opponents to an xG of 1.27, whereas Vaprus have an xG against of as much as 1.92, suggesting that the visitors have the edge in chance quality. The hosts are nevertheless efficient at home, scoring an average of 1.73 goals and converting 19% of their attempts, while Flora have lost 4 of their last 5 league matches, so an upset remains a realistic possibility. Despite the visitors’ weaker recent run, their season-long quality in attack, defence and away fixtures points towards a Flora victory.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily based on Flora’s clear drop in finishing efficiency: in their last 5 matches, they have averaged just 0.6 goals and scored 3 goals in total. BTTS occurred in only 20% of their matches during this period, compared with 80% for Vaprus, indicating that the main risk to the both-teams-to-score scenario comes from the away side. Across the entire season, both teams also have BTTS rates below the league average of 59%: Vaprus at 45% and Flora at 40%. Additionally, Vaprus keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches, while Flora fail to score in 20%, making a home win without a goal from the visitors a realistic outcome. The teams’ high seasonal xG figures—2.09 for Vaprus and 2.13 for Flora—keep the possibility of an away goal alive, but Flora’s current attacking form provides stronger support for BTTS - No.

The seasonal profile of both teams clearly supports goals: Vaprus matches ended with at least two goals in 82% of cases, while Tallinna FC Flora matches did so in 90%. The hosts average 2.18 goals per match and have scored 12 goals in their last five appearances, averaging 2.4 per game. Flora are in weaker offensive form, with just 3 goals in five matches, but their season-long average xG stands at 2.13, while Vaprus allow opponents 1.49 xG. Both teams generate consistent pressure, averaging 17.09 and 17.6 shots per match, respectively, which strengthens the forecast of at least two goals. The strongest signal is Over 1.5, as even under the cautious assumption of 3.05 expected goals, this line has by far the highest probability.

Vaprus are in clearly better current form: over their last five matches, they averaged 2.4 goals scored and won 40% of their games, while Flora scored just 0.6 goals, lost 80% of their matches and conceded an average of 2.0. The hosts were leading at the break in 40% of their last five appearances, whereas the visitors have not once gone into half-time with a lead; their first-half record also stands at 1 goal scored and 5 conceded. Across the season, Vaprus average 1.09 goals before the break, more than twice Flora’s 0.50, while also registering 5.64 shots on target per match compared with their opponents’ 5.60. After the interval, the hosts remain highly solid, averaging 1.09 goals scored and just 0.36 conceded, whereas Flora have scored only 0.4 goals after half-time in their last five league matches. The scenario of Vaprus leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage until full-time therefore has the strongest support from both current form and the distribution of results across the two halves.