Varaždin vs Rudeš: match statistics

Varaždin have won both of their home matches so far, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding just 0.5 per game. Rudeš, on the other hand, have lost every away match, averaging just 0.5 goals scored while conceding as many as 3.00. The hosts are considerably more clinical, converting 21% of their shots compared with 7% for the visitors, while Rudeš have failed to score in 50% of their away matches. The difference is also reflected in the quality of chances created, with Varaždin allowing opponents an xG of 1.48, whereas Rudeš’s defence concedes as much as 3.05 xG. Although Varaždin have conceded 7 goals in their last five matches, the visitors’ extremely poor away defence and weak attack strongly favour a home win.

The BTTS pick is supported by the very poor defensive records of both teams: Varaždin concede an average of 3.5 goals, while Rudeš concede 3.0 per match, with neither side recording a clean sheet in any of their games. Varaždin score an average of 2.5 goals at home and have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches, while Rudeš have scored an average of 1.8 goals in their last five outings. The visitors have a lower season-long attacking potential, averaging 0.5 goals with an xG of 0.81, but the hosts’ defence allows opponents an xG of 1.60, increasing their chances of scoring. BTTS occurred in 60% of Varaždin’s and as many as 80% of Rudeš’s last five matches, while the visitors conceded 14 goals during that period. The hosts’ attacking advantage over Rudeš’s defence, which has an average xG against of 3.05, should ensure a goal for Varaždin, while the vulnerable home defence favours a goal for the visitors.

In all previous matches involving both teams, at least 2 goals were scored each time, while the 2.5 line was covered in 100% of each team’s matches. Varaždin averages 2.5 goals scored at home, whereas Rudeš concedes as many as 3.0 goals away from home and allows opponents an average xG of 3.05. In their last five appearances, both teams averaged 1.8 goals per match, while Rudeš conceded 14 goals during that period, or 2.8 per game. The league average of 3.58 goals and 74% of matches featuring at least three goals also support the scenario of an open game. However, the strongest selection remains Over 1.5, as it combines full coverage of this line in both teams’ data with the hosts’ clear attacking advantage over Rudeš’s weak defence.

Varaždin has a clearly stronger profile in the opening stages of the match: in their last five games, they led at the break on 60% of occasions, averaging 1.2 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded before half-time. Over the same period, Rudeš failed to lead after 45 minutes, were behind at half-time in 60% of their matches, and recorded a first-half average of 0.4 goals scored compared with 1.8 conceded per game. The hosts average 11.5 shots and 4 on target, compared with 7.0 and 2.5 respectively for the visitors, while the difference in chance quality is even greater: Varaždin’s xG stands at 1.32, whereas Rudeš concede as much as 3.05 xG on average. The hosts also retain strong arguments after the break, averaging 2.0 goals scored in the second half over the season, while Rudeš have not won a single match and have lost all of their away fixtures to date. The most likely scenario is therefore Varaždin leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage through to full-time.