Várda SE vs Diósgyőr: match statistics
Várda SE vs Diósgyőr: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Várda SE played Diósgyőr in NB I (Hungary). The match was played on 25 April 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Várda SE: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Diósgyőr: 0-0-5, 0.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Várda SE scores 1.13 and concedes 1.47 goals per match. Diósgyőr scores 1.20 and concedes 1.90. League average: 2.97 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Várda SE 47%, Diósgyőr 70%. Over 2.5: Várda SE 47%, Diósgyőr 63%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 59%.
xG, shots and style
Várda SE has higher xG: 1.26 vs 1.23. Várda SE: 10.6 shots per match, Diósgyőr: 11.3.
Match halves
Várda SE: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.60. Diósgyőr: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 0.60.
Goals by minute
Várda SE: 16-30 (8 goals). Diósgyőr: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
NB I: 2.97 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 59%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Várda SE holds advantages in key metrics: at home they win 47% of matches and concede an average of 1.2 goals per game, while Diósgyőr win only 13% on the road and concede 2.2 on average. The hosts create more chances (11.8 shots and 3.93 on target at home versus 10.53 shots and 3.47 on target for the visitors) and have a higher xG (1.34 vs 1.20), indicating better quality of chances. Both teams are in poor form — Várda are without a win in their last 5 (0-2-3, 0.4 pts/game), and Diósgyőr have lost all 5 recent matches, conceding 17 goals. Additionally, the visitors have 0% clean sheets away compared to 40% for the hosts, so I favor a Várda win, although the low scoring form of both sides (3 goals each in the last 5 matches) introduces some draw risk.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The BTTS signal is strong: Várda has BTTS 60% this season, Diósgyőr 80%, averaging 70% versus the league average of 60%. Additionally Diósgyőr has not recorded a single clean sheet (0%), and Várda has only 20% clean sheets, so a match without one side scoring is unlikely. Defensively Diósgyőr concedes 2.2 goals on average this season and as many as 3.4 in the last 5 matches, while Várda concedes 1.6 this season and 1.4 in the last 5, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Offensively both teams have similar metrics: average goals scored 1.2 and 1.2, xG 1.26 versus 1.20 and shots on target 3.4 versus 3.47, confirming they will create chances; therefore I predict BTTS - Yes at 75% and No at 25%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG: Várda SE has xG_for 1.26 while Diósgyőr concedes on average 1.78 xG, yielding a projected 1.52 goals for the home side; conversely Diósgyőr has xG_for 1.20 and Várda concedes 1.39 xG, giving 1.30 goals for the away side and a total of 2.82. A Poisson model with lambda=2.82 yields probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) ≈ 77%, at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) ≈ 53% and at least 4 goals (Over 3.5) ≈ 31%. Season data reinforce this assessment: Várda has 87% of matches Over 1.5 and 53% Over 2.5; Diósgyőr 93% and 73% respectively, and in the last 5 matches Diósgyőr recorded 100% Over 2.5 and conceded 17 goals (3.4 per game), while Várda conceded 7 (1.4 per game). Additionally, Both Teams To Score rates are 60% for Várda and 80% for Diósgyőr, the league averages 2.99 goals/match and 59% of matches Over 2.5, all supporting the Over option. As a result the strongest signal is Over; I recommend Over on the line 1.5 as the safest pick, while Over 2.5 (≈53%) is a realistic but riskier alternative.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I back a Half-Time draw and a home win at Full-Time (X/1) as the most likely scenario. The first half should be balanced: hosts led at the break in 40% of matches (6 times), and visitors in 33% (5 times), but in the last 5 fixtures the hosts did not lead at the break (0%) while the guests led in 40% (2 of 5), which increases the chance of a draw at Half-Time. After the break the indicators favor the home side — hosts score on average 1.2 and concede 1.6, visitors score 1.2 and concede 2.2, with hosts’ attacking xG 1.26 versus 1.20 for the visitors and opponents’ xG against the visitors 1.78. Second-half stats show the visitors’ weakness after the break: visitors conceded 9 goals in 46–60, 5 in 61–75 and 6 in 76–90 (20 total), while hosts conceded 4, 3 and 8 in those intervals respectively (15 total), so a turnaround in favor of the hosts is more likely. Therefore I assign X/1 the highest probability (30%), with X/X (20%) and 1/1 (15%) as alternatives.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Várda SE | Diósgyőr | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Diósgyőr is 6% better for: goals scored per match.
1.13 goals / match - Várda SE · 1.2 goals / match - Diósgyőr
Várda SE is 29% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.47 goals / match - Várda SE · 1.9 goals / match - Diósgyőr
Várda SE scores in 70% of matches (21 of 30 matches), while Diósgyőr keeps a clean sheet in 10% (3 of 30 matches).
Diósgyőr scores in 77% of matches (23 of 30 matches), while Várda SE keeps a clean sheet in 30% (9 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Várda SE
Over / Under - Diósgyőr
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Diósgyőr is 34% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.07 pts / match - Várda SE · 1.43 pts / match - Diósgyőr
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Várda SE - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Diósgyőr - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 17%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -12 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (8 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Várda SE
Diósgyőr
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (NB I).
Teams vs league
| Várda SE | Liga | Diósgyőr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.60 | 2.97 | ▲ 3.10 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 47% | 60% | ▲ 70% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 47% | 59% | ▲ 63% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 30% | 22% | ▼ 10% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 69% | ▲ 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 77% | 86% | ▲ 93% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Várda SE 1 - 1 - 0 Diósgyőr. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Várda SE vs Diósgyőr?
The NB I match finished Várda SE 1:2 Diósgyőr. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Várda SE and Diósgyőr?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Várda SE won 1, Diósgyőr won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Várda SE vs Diósgyőr?
Várda SE score 1.13 goals per game on average and Diósgyőr 1.20. The NB I average is 2.97 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 59% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Várda SE's matches and 70% of Diósgyőr's.
What form are Várda SE and Diósgyőr in?
Over the last 5 games Várda SE have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Diósgyőr 0-0-5 (0.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Várda SE vs Diósgyőr?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Várda SE vs Diósgyőr: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.