Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro: match statistics

Cruzeiro sit 5th, while Vasco da Gama are 19th, and the difference is reflected in their current form: the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 9 goals in that run, whereas the hosts have just 1 win and 5 goals. Vasco do create more chances at home, averaging 2.07 xG and 19.25 shots per match, but convert this into only 1.08 goals at a 6% shot conversion rate. Cruzeiro are more efficient, averaging 1.18 goals from 13.55 shots, with a 9% conversion rate; they also fail to score in just 18% of away matches, compared with 33% of Vasco’s home games. The visitors’ away defence is not flawless, conceding 1.64 goals per match, so the hosts have a realistic chance of scoring, but Cruzeiro have a higher probability of converting their chances. The last five-match record, with a 9:6 goal difference for Cruzeiro compared with Vasco’s 5:8, points to a moderate advantage for the visitors.

The seasonal BTTS figures are clearly above the league average of 57%: Vasco da Gama records 69%, while Cruzeiro stands at 64%. The hosts score an average of 1.62 goals at home, while Cruzeiro concedes 1.64 away from home, strongly supporting a Vasco goal. Cruzeiro generates an average of 1.48 xG per match, while Vasco allows 1.03 xG at home; additionally, the hosts keep a clean sheet in only 23% of matches. Vasco’s last five matches reduce confidence in the pick, as the team scored only 1.0 goal per game and BTTS landed in 40% of cases, whereas Cruzeiro recorded BTTS in each of their last five appearances. With Vasco at 1.77 xG and Cruzeiro at 1.51 xG in the current run, the more likely scenario is that both sides will find the back of the net.

Vasco da Gama score an average of 1.62 goals at home, while Cruzeiro concede 1.64 goals away from home, creating favorable conditions for the hosts. Their attacking potential is further supported by the average xG figures: 1.69 for Vasco and 1.48 for Cruzeiro, while Vasco’s defense allows opponents just 1.03 xG. At least 2 goals were scored in 85% of Vasco’s matches and 82% of Cruzeiro’s fixtures, with both teams also recording 60% of matches featuring a minimum of 3 goals across their last five appearances. Cruzeiro have scored in each of their last five matches, while Vasco conceded 8 goals during this period, averaging 1.6 per game. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the season data and current form clearly support a scenario featuring at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Vasco da Gama victory, as the hosts were level at the break in 38% of their matches, rising to 80% across their last five games. The opening stages should be cautious: over their last five league fixtures, both teams averaged only 0.6 goals scored before half-time, while Vasco conceded just 0.2 goals per match during that period. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage increases, as they average 0.92 goals scored, while Cruzeiro concede 0.91 in second halves; additionally, Vasco have collected 20 points in this period of play, compared with the opponents’ 14. The hosts’ expected victory is further supported by their higher xG, 1.69 versus 1.48, as well as Cruzeiro’s weaker defence, with the visitors allowing opponents an average of 1.55 xG and conceding 1.64 goals per match.