Velež vs Radnik Bijeljina: match statistics

Velež have a clear home advantage: they won their only home match so far, scoring 2 goals and conceding none. Radnik Bijeljina are yet to win away from home, averaging just 0.5 goals, and have failed to score in 50% of their away matches. At home, the hosts create chances worth an average of 1.33 xG while allowing opponents just 0.77 xG, whereas Radnik’s defence gives opponents 1.50 xG on average. However, both teams are in poor overall form, with Velež losing 4 of their last 5 matches, while the visitors have failed to win any of their last five games and conceded 11 goals in that run. Velež’s defensive advantage at home and Radnik’s limited attacking output point towards a low-scoring home win.

The latest form of both teams clearly limits the chances of goals at both ends: Velež has recorded BTTS in only 20% of their last 5 matches, while Radnik has done so in 40%. The hosts have averaged 0.6 goals scored during this period, while the visitors have managed just 0.4, which is a particularly strong signal that one side may fail to score. Radnik has kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season and has also failed to score in 50%, meaning their games often follow a scenario that does not meet the BTTS requirement. Although Velež averages 6.0 shots on target at home, both teams have low finishing efficiency, at 6% for the hosts and 4% for the visitors. The average xG from the last five matches—1.14 for Velež and 1.28 for Radnik—suggests some attacking potential, but given their poor actual goal production, BTTS - No is the more likely outcome.

Both teams have clear issues with their finishing: over their last five matches, Velež averaged 0.6 goals, while Radnik managed just 0.4. At the same time, their average xG during this period—1.14 and 1.28, respectively—suggests the potential for 2–3 goals but does not support the scenario of a highly open game. Velež have conceded 1.8 goals per match recently, compared with 2.2 for Radnik, yet only 40% of Velež’s matches and 60% of Radnik’s games went Over 2.5 goals. The projected total of 2.30 goals remains below the league average of 2.38, making Under 3.5 the most reliable option; four or more goals would require significantly better finishing than either team is currently showing.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Velež victory, as Radnik were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, yet failed to finish any of them with the lead. In their last five games, the hosts averaged just 0.2 goals before half-time, while the visitors averaged 0.4, which clearly increases the importance of a cautious opening. After the break, however, Velež have greater potential to create chances: their average xG stands at 1.95, with 17 shots and 6 shots on target, compared with Radnik’s 1.51 xG and 3.5 shots on target. The Bijeljina side conceded an average of 2.2 goals in their last five matches, while failing to score in the second half on every occasion and conceding an average of 1.2 goals after the break. Despite both teams’ poor form, the hosts’ advantage in chance quality and Radnik’s second-half struggles support the X/1 outcome.