Viking vs Sarpsborg 08: match statistics

Viking sit 2nd and have won 12 of their 15 matches this season, while Sarpsborg 08 are seventh with a record of 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats. The home advantage is particularly pronounced: Viking have won 100% of their matches at home, scoring an average of 3.83 goals with 7 shots on target per game. Sarpsborg score just 1.25 goals per away match, have failed to score in 38% of their away fixtures, and concede an average of 1.75 goals. Viking also create higher-quality chances, posting a home xG of 1.89 compared with Sarpsborg’s 1.36 xG away from home, while the visitors allow opponents an xG of 1.60. Although Sarpsborg are unbeaten in their last five matches overall and have conceded only 4 goals during that run, their 25% away win rate and -4 goal difference support the case for the hosts.

The BTTS - Yes pick is supported by the fact that Viking have recorded BTTS in 57% of their matches, while Sarpsborg 08 have done so in 50%, against a league average of 55%. The hosts have failed to score in just 14% of matches, whereas the visitors have been held scoreless in 38%, making a Viking goal particularly likely against a Sarpsborg defence conceding an average of 1.75 goals. Both sides also create a comparable number of chances: average xG stands at 1.43 for Viking and 1.36 for Sarpsborg, while their opponents generate 1.56 and 1.60 xG respectively. In their last five matches, the teams have averaged 1.6 and 1.4 goals scored, while conceding only 0.8 each, which limits confidence in the pick. Despite this defensive improvement, the high chance-creation figures and vulnerability of both defences marginally favour the BTTS - Yes scenario.

Viking should create more chances, as Sarpsborg concede an average of 1.75 goals away from home, while the hosts generate 1.43 xG. The visitors’ attacking potential is more limited: they score an average of 1.25 goals, whereas Viking concede just 0.71 at home, despite their xG against standing at 1.56. In their last five matches, both teams have improved their finishing, scoring 1.6 and 1.4 goals per game respectively, while each conceded only 0.8 goals during that period. The strongest signal comes from Viking’s profile: all of their home matches finished with under 3.5 goals, and only 29% went over 2.5. Sarpsborg have a higher percentage of matches with at least three goals, at 63%, but the overall data points more towards a total of around 2–3 goals, giving the edge to Under 3.5 goals.

Viking have a clearly superior home record: they average 1.14 goals scored and concede just 0.71, while Sarpsborg allow opponents 1.75 goals per away match. The hosts led at the break in 3 of their 7 home games (43%) and have not once gone into half-time trailing, whereas Sarpsborg have surrendered a half-time lead in 25% of their away fixtures. In addition, Viking kept a clean sheet before half-time in 57% of their home matches, compared with just 25% of Sarpsborg’s away appearances. Over their last five matches, Viking have averaged 1.2 goals scored and only 0.2 conceded before the break, supporting the scenario of them establishing an advantage in the first half. Sarpsborg are unbeaten recently, so half-time draw outcomes remain relevant; however, their weaker away defence and 50% loss rate away from home this season point most strongly towards 1/1.