Víkingur Reykjavík vs Keflavík: match statistics

Víkingur Reykjavík are the league leaders, with a record of 16 wins, 5 draws and just 1 defeat, while Keflavík sit 6th and have lost 10 of their 22 matches. At home, the hosts average 3.18 goals per game with an xG of 2.25, registering 19.27 shots and 7.55 shots on target—well above Keflavík’s away figures of 1.36 goals, 1.47 xG and 3.82 shots on target. The visitors’ away defence concedes as many as 2.27 goals per match and keeps a clean sheet in just 9% of games, while Víkingur have not lost at home, winning 73% of such fixtures. The hosts do have a weaker overall run, with 1 win in their last 5 matches, but Keflavík have also lost 3 of their last 5 and scored just 5 goals during that spell. The superior quality of chances created, 58% to 43% possession dominance and an extremely strong home record all point to a Víkingur victory.

BTTS has occurred in 64% of Víkingur’s matches over the course of the season and in as many as 82% of Keflavík’s games, compared with a league average of 71%. The hosts score an average of 1.64 goals and create chances worth 1.86 xG, while Keflavík concede as many as 2.27 goals on average and allow opponents 1.89 xG. The visitors should also have opportunities to score, as Víkingur have conceded 9 goals in their last five matches—1.8 per game—while their average xG against stands at 1.51. Keflavík have failed to score in only 9% of their matches this season, exactly the same as the hosts, further reducing the risk of a clean sheet for either side. The visitors’ weaker 40% BTTS record across their last five appearances lowers confidence in the pick, but the strength of the season-long data and the vulnerability of both defences still provide clearer support for BTTS - Yes.

Víkingur have clear scoring potential, averaging 1.86 xG and 5.55 shots on target per match, while Keflavík concede an average of 2.27 goals and allow opponents 1.89 xG. The visitors should also contribute: their average xG stands at 1.47, while the hosts allow opponents 1.58 xG per game. At least 2 goals were scored in 73% of Víkingur’s matches and in as many as 91% of Keflavík’s fixtures, while both teams scored at least once in 91% of their appearances. The hosts’ last five matches produced an average of 3.2 goals, which is why Over 1.5 goals has the strongest support based on both the attacking profiles and Keflavík’s defensive weaknesses.

Víkingur Reykjavík has a clear first-half advantage: they led at the break in 45% of matches, while Keflavík were trailing after 45 minutes in as many as 45% of games. The hosts score an average of 0.91 goals before half-time and concede just 0.45, whereas the visitors score only 0.45 goals and concede 0.82. Víkingur’s advantage should persist after the break, as their average xG stands at 1.86 compared with Keflavík’s 1.47, while the visitors’ defence allows an average of 2.27 goals per match. Keflavík have lost 64% of their matches this season and have kept a clean sheet in only 9%, strengthening the scenario of the hosts leading at half-time and securing the win at full-time. The risk is the high percentage of matches in which both teams scored—64% for the hosts and 82% for the visitors—but this does not outweigh the advantage of the 1/1 outcome.