Vis Pesaro vs Perugia: match statistics

Perugia have a marginally better record over their last five matches, collecting 5 points compared with Vis Pesaro’s 4, while their run includes two draws, whereas the hosts have lost 3 of their 5 games. Vis Pesaro have scored slightly more goals during this period, 6 compared with 5, but have also conceded as many as 11, almost twice as many as Perugia (6). In the current season, Perugia opened with a 1:0 victory and kept a clean sheet, while Vis Pesaro lost their only match 0:2. The visitors’ defensive advantage and more stable recent results point towards a narrow victory, although the high proportion of draws in Perugia’s recent form increases the likelihood of the points being shared.

The latest form of both teams points towards goals at both ends, as BTTS landed in 60% of Vis Pesaro’s and Perugia’s last five matches. Vis Pesaro averaged 1.2 goals scored during this period but conceded as many as 2.2, while its average xG against was a high 2.26. Perugia scored an average of 1.0 goals but created chances worth 1.86 xG, which looks promising against the hosts’ defence. The home side should also find the net, as Perugia allowed opponents an average of 1.2 goals and 1.24 xG across its last five fixtures. The league’s seasonal BTTS average is only 40%, but the current numbers for both teams point more clearly towards a goal for each side.

Vis Pesaro’s latest form is open: across five matches, the team scored 6 goals and conceded 11, with 80% of games going over 2.5 goals. Over the same period, Perugia averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with 40% of matches going over 2.5 and 60% featuring goals from both sides. The visitors’ attacking potential is supported by an xG of 1.86 per match, while Vis Pesaro allowed opponents an xG of 2.26, raising expectations for Perugia to score. Despite this, the projected total of 2.70 goals remains well below four, while the league average is only 2.1 goals. Therefore, Under 3.5 has the edge: scenarios with 2 or 3 goals are more likely than a match featuring at least four goals.

A draw at both half-time and full-time is the most likely outcome, as Perugia have drawn 2 of their last 5 matches and average just 1.0 goals per game. Both teams have shown clear attacking problems in the first half: Vis Pesaro have averaged 0.4 goals, while Perugia have managed just 0.2, with the visitors drawing at the break in 40% of their recent matches. In the only available home match for Vis Pesaro, the half-time score was 0-0 and the hosts kept a clean sheet; their average xG was 1.46, while allowing opponents just 0.81 xG. Caution is advised, as Vis Pesaro have lost 3 of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 2.2 goals, but Perugia also offer no strong signal for a win, having won only 20% of their matches in this period.