Vitória Guimarães vs FC Arouca: match statistics

FC Arouca have shown clearly better form in their last five matches, scoring 10 goals and earning 10 points through 3 wins and a draw. Over the same period, Vitória Guimarães scored just 4 goals, lost 3 of their 5 matches and conceded 8 goals. The visitors are also higher in the table, sitting 9th compared with the hosts’ 18th place, further highlighting the gap in current form. Arouca have conceded an average of 1.2 goals per match during the analysed period, while Vitória have allowed opponents 1.6 goals per game and their attack has managed just 0.8 goals per match. The visitors’ superior efficiency and more consistent results point towards an Arouca win, although home advantage gives the hosts a significant chance of securing a draw.

The stronger signal is BTTS - No, as Vitória Guimarães have scored only 4 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.8 per game, while a both-teams-to-score scenario occurred in just 20% of those matches. Arouca are in better offensive form, averaging 2.0 goals and scoring 10 times in their last five appearances, giving them a solid foundation to score at least once. The hosts have conceded an average of 1.6 goals, while Arouca have allowed opponents an average of 1.2 goals, which does not provide a full guarantee of a clean sheet for the visitors. Despite similar xG figures from their last five matches—1.35 for Vitória and 1.40 for Arouca—the hosts’ poor finishing and low BTTS rate support the view that at least one team will fail to score.

Data from the last 5 matches points to Arouca's clearly superior attacking output, with an average of 2.0 goals scored compared with just 0.8 for Vitória Guimarães. The hosts conceded 1.6 goals per match over this period, further supporting the forecast of at least one goal for the visitors. The teams' combined xG figures were 1.35 and 1.40 respectively, while their average xG conceded to opponents stood at 1.24 and 1.36, supporting a scenario of around 2.65 goals. The contrast in matches finishing Over 2.5 goals is significant: Vitória recorded this outcome in 20% of matches, whereas Arouca did so in as many as 80%, making the 2.5 line more balanced. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as even with the hosts' weaker finishing efficiency, Arouca's scoring form and Vitória's defensive numbers clearly increase the likelihood of at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a win for FC Arouca, as Vitória were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches and failed to score before half-time in any of them. Arouca also tend to start cautiously, drawing at half-time in 60% of their recent matches, but they average 1.6 goals after the break compared with Vitória’s 0.8. The visitors are clearly in better overall form: they won 60% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.0 goals, while the hosts lost 60% of their matches and scored only 0.8 goals per game. Arouca’s second-half advantage is further underlined by their unbeaten record in second halves and a positive goal difference of +4, compared with Vitória’s zero balance.