Vitória vs Bahia: match statistics

Vitória are significantly stronger at home: they have won 73% of their matches, averaging 1.45 goals scored and conceding just 0.64 goals per game. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 73% of their home appearances, while Bahia concede an average of 1.55 goals away from home and have a high average xG against of 1.89. Bahia sit higher in the table, but they have drawn all 5 of their last five matches, scoring 5 and conceding 5 goals, which points to limited attacking efficiency. Vitória have also scored only 5 goals in their last five league matches, but their home advantage and positive home goal difference of +9 clearly favor the hosts. A closely contested match is expected, although Vitória’s solid defense should tip the balance in their favor.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are clearly positive: Vitória has recorded this outcome in 67% of matches, while Bahia has done so in 64%, compared with the league average of 57%. The hosts create an average of 1.70 xG and register 5.42 shots on target per match, while Bahia concedes an average of 1.55 goals away from home, with 1.89 xG allowed to opponents. Bahia should also have its chances, as Vitória has conceded 8 goals in its last five matches—1.6 per game—while its average xG against stood at 1.73. However, the BTTS signal is weakened by the fact that Vitória has not seen both teams score in any of its last five matches and has scored only 1.0 goal per game during this period. Despite this short-term caution, the combination of strong seasonal BTTS rates and Bahia’s defensive weakness gives a slight edge to the scenario in which both teams score.

Vitória creates chances worth an average of 1.70 xG at home, while Bahia allows as much as 1.89 xG away from home, so the hosts should be closer to scoring 1.5 goals than being held scoreless. At the same time, Vitória concedes only 0.92 goals per match at home, while Bahia averages 1.36 goals away, which limits the outlook for the visitors. In their last five appearances, both teams scored 5 goals, or just 1.0 per match, and Vitória recorded Over 2.5 goals in only 40% of those games. On a season-long basis, Vitória’s matches finished Under 3.5 goals in 92% of cases, compared with 64% for Bahia; additionally, neither team regularly scores more than two goals on its own. This supports taking Under 3.5 goals, even though the 2.5 line remains finely balanced.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome, as Vitória were level at the break in 42% of their matches, while Bahia have gone into half-time level in 60% of their last five games. Both teams tend to approach the first half relatively cautiously: Vitória average 0.75 goals before the break and Bahia 0.73, while both teams score before half-time in only 25% and 27% of their matches, respectively. After the interval, the advantage should shift towards the hosts, who concede an average of just 0.25 goals in the second half, compared with Bahia’s 0.91. Vitória also possess greater creative potential, with an average xG of 1.70 versus Bahia’s 1.43, as well as 5.42 shots on target per match compared with 3.91. The visitors remain unbeaten in their last five matches, but all of them ended in draws, reinforcing the scenario of an evenly balanced start followed by a decision in Vitória’s favour.