VPS vs TPS: match statistics

VPS have a clear home advantage: they have won 56% of their home matches, scoring an average of 1.89 goals and conceding just 0.78 per game. TPS are still without an away win, losing 56% of their matches, scoring only 0.67 goals per game, and failing to find the net in as many as 44% of their away fixtures. The hosts create more high-quality chances, recording a home xG of 1.57 and 5.22 shots on target per match, while TPS average just 3.89 shots on target away from home. Although VPS’s form over their last five matches has been inconsistent and TPS have conceded only 5 goals during that period, the hosts’ more reliable defence and the visitors’ very poor away finishing strongly support a VPS win.

The BTTS pick is slightly supported by current form: VPS and TPS have averaged 1.2 and 1.6 goals respectively over their last five matches. During this period, VPS conceded 1.4 goals per game and TPS 1.0, while their average xG against figures stand at 1.41 and 1.68, suggesting opportunities for both sides. The seasonal rate of matches in which both teams scored is 50% for VPS and 56% for TPS, while over their last five appearances it was 60% and 40% respectively. The hosts are clearly stronger offensively, scoring 1.8 goals per game this season, whereas TPS's weaker finishing—just 0.67 goals on average and 44% of matches without scoring—limits confidence in the pick. Despite this caveat, TPS's xG of 1.53 and the visitors' low clean-sheet rate of just 11% point to a slight preference for the scenario in which both teams find the net.

VPS averages 1.8 goals at home, while TPS concedes 1.33 goals per away match, clearly supporting at least one goal for the home side. In their last five matches, both teams recorded games with Over 2.5 goals in 60% of cases, while their average xG stood at 1.57 and 1.48, respectively. During this period, TPS scored an average of 1.6 goals, although its season-long away scoring rate is lower, at just 0.67 goals per match. The Over 1.5 goals line has an edge, as VPS scored at least two goals in 80% of its matches this season, while the combination of current attacking data points to a forecast of 2.65 goals. At the same time, only 20% of VPS matches and 22% of TPS matches went Over 3.5 goals, so a high-scoring game is not the baseline scenario.

VPS have won 70% of their matches and average 2.2 points per game, while TPS have failed to win any away match, averaging just 0.44 points. The hosts led at the break in 4 of 10 matches, whereas TPS have never been ahead at half-time and were trailing after the first half in 56% of their games. VPS’s advantage is also evident in their finishing: they score an average of 1.80 goals with a 16% shot-conversion rate, while TPS score only 0.67 goals per match and convert 5% of their attempts. However, the visitors’ recent form has improved, as they have averaged 1.6 goals across their last five matches, so a turnaround or an upset cannot be completely ruled out. The strongest signal still points to VPS leading at the break and holding on to win at full-time.