Warta Sieradz vs Wigry Suwałki: match statistics

Wigry Suwałki have won 6 of their 11 matches this season, compared with 4 wins from 10 for Warta Sieradz. In their last five meetings, the visitors have recorded 3 wins to the hosts’ 2. Wigry also have the edge in away attacking efficiency: they convert 14% of their shots and average 1.6 goals, while Warta convert 10% and average 1.67 goals at home. The biggest difference is in defence: the visitors concede an average of 0.8 goals away from home, while the hosts concede 2.0 at home and have yet to keep a clean sheet there. However, Warta can pose a threat, with a home xG of 1.81, while Wigry allow opponents an away xG of 1.84. The visitors are unbeaten away from home so far, but 60% of those matches have ended in draws, making the draw a significant alternative to an away win.

The case for BTTS - Yes is driven primarily by Wigry having scored in every match so far, while Warta average 1.83 goals per game compared with 1.6 for the visitors. Warta have seen BTTS in each of their last 5 matches, while Wigry have done so in 3 of 5; both teams have conceded an average of 1.4 goals per game over this period. The hosts should have opportunities to score, as their average xG is 1.40, while Wigry allow opponents chances worth an average xG of 1.84. The strongest argument against BTTS is Warta's 67% clean-sheet rate for the season, but their last 5 matches point to a less solid defence. I therefore consider both teams to score the more likely scenario, although the edge is not decisive.

In their last 5 matches, Warta averaged 2.0 goals scored and Wigry 2.2, while both teams conceded 1.4 goals per match over that period. Their attacking potential is also reflected in the xG figures: 1.40 for Warta and 1.65 for Wigry, with the visitors’ xG conceded standing at 1.84. The case for at least two goals is further supported by the Over 1.5 line landing in 100% of Wigry’s matches, although in only 50% of Warta’s. Higher lines are less reliable, as Over 2.5 goals landed in just 33% of Warta’s matches and 20% of Wigry’s. With 2.90 goals forecast, Over 1.5 is therefore the strongest signal, although season-long data calls for caution on Over 2.5.

Warta have won 67% of their matches, averaging 2.17 points per game, while Wigry have recorded a 40% win rate and 1.8 points per game. The home side’s prospects of taking a lead at the break are supported by an average of 1.0 first-half goals, compared with Wigry’s 0.6, although Warta were level at half-time in 60% of their matches. Warta’s average of 1.83 goals per match and their 67% clean-sheet rate further improve the chances of them holding on to a lead. However, the 1/1 pick is not a clear-cut one: Wigry have yet to lose a match, and their average xG is 1.65 compared with Warta’s 1.40, making a half-time draw followed by a later decisive outcome a significant alternative.