Waterford vs Derry City: match statistics

Waterford are in excellent current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, drawn one, and conceded just 2 goals during that period. Derry City are also picking up points, but they have conceded as many as 11 goals in their last five matches, despite scoring 14 themselves. At home, Waterford average 1.36 goals with an xG of 1.40, while Derry City score just 1.07 times per away match and lose 43% of their games. The hosts also have a clearly stronger defensive record in this matchup, conceding an average of 1.14 goals at home compared with Derry City’s 1.50 goals away. A draw remains a realistic outcome, as both teams draw 50% of their respective home and away matches, but Waterford’s current defensive solidity points towards a home win.

The BTTS signal is positive, as Waterford matches have seen both teams score in 60% of cases throughout the season, while the figure for Derry City is as high as 71%. At home, Waterford average 1.73 goals scored and create 1.90 xG, whereas Derry City concede an average of 1.50 goals away from home, with 1.68 xG allowed to their opponents. The visitors have lower attacking potential, averaging 1.07 goals and 1.30 xG, but the hosts have allowed opponents 1.60 xG across their last five matches, increasing the likelihood of them finding the net. Derry City’s recent form points to an open game: they have scored 14 goals and conceded 11 in their last five appearances, with BTTS landing in 80% of those matches. However, Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their games and conceded only 2 goals in their last five, so the risk of a BTTS - No scenario, meaning that at least one team fails to score, remains significant.

Waterford average 1.73 goals at home and create chances worth 1.90 xG, while Derry City concede an average of 1.50 goals and allow opponents 1.68 xG. The visitors score an average of 1.07 goals, but they have found the net 14 times in their last five appearances, averaging 2.8 goals per game. Both teams have a high seasonal frequency of matches featuring at least two goals: 73% for Waterford and 71% for Derry City. Additionally, the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in 60% and 80% of their respective last five matches. However, Over 1.5 goals remains the strongest pick, as the projected total of 2.85 goals provides a clear margin over this line, while the risk of a very tight result is reduced by Waterford’s attacking indicators and the visitors’ current scoring form.

A draw at half-time is the most logical starting point, as Waterford were level at the break in 33% of their matches and Derry City in 29%, with average first-half goal figures of just 1.13 and 0.86, respectively. Derry City can make strong starts, leading at the break in 43% of matches compared with 27% for Waterford, so the scenario of the visitors holding the advantage after 45 minutes remains realistic. After the interval, however, Waterford have significantly stronger arguments: they score an average of 1.20 goals in second halves, while Derry City concede 1.14 goals per match during that period. The hosts also have the higher season-long xG, 1.90 compared with 1.30, average 5.93 shots on target per game against 3.93 for their opponents, and collect 1.60 points per match compared with Derry City’s 0.71. Recent form further supports a turnaround or a break from a half-time draw, as Waterford have won four of their last five matches, with their opponents conceding an average of as many as 2.20 goals in those games.