Watford vs Birmingham City: match statistics
Watford displays superior form, averaging 2.2 points per game over their last five fixtures, whereas Birmingham City manages just 0.6 points. The hosts have won 58% of their home matches, boasting a positive goal difference of +8 at their own ground, while the visitors concede an average of 1.67 goals on the road with a mere 17% win rate. Birmingham City remains winless in their last five outings and holds a negative goal difference of -12 in away games. Watford's advantage in shooting efficiency (5.92 shots on target per game vs. 2.17) and superior xG (1.8 vs. 1.1) further validate the prediction of a home victory. The visitors' poor form across their last twelve away fixtures (a streak of losses and draws), combined with failing to score in 42% of their away matches, strongly points towards a decisive Watford win.
Watford vs Birmingham City: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Watford played Birmingham City in Championship (England). The match was played on 1 January 2026. Final score: 3:0.
Current form
Watford: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match. Birmingham City: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Watford scores 1.42 and concedes 1.21 goals per match. Birmingham City scores 1.33 and concedes 1.29. League average: 2.60 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Watford 71%, Birmingham City 58%. Over 2.5: Watford 54%, Birmingham City 50%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Birmingham City has higher xG: 1.54 vs 1.50. Watford: 13.8 shots per match, Birmingham City: 14.5.
Match halves
Watford: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.79. Birmingham City: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
Watford: 31-45+ (9 goals). Birmingham City: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Championship: 2.60 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Watford displays superior form, averaging 2.2 points per game over their last five fixtures, whereas Birmingham City manages just 0.6 points. The hosts have won 58% of their home matches, boasting a positive goal difference of +8 at their own ground, while the visitors concede an average of 1.67 goals on the road with a mere 17% win rate. Birmingham City remains winless in their last five outings and holds a negative goal difference of -12 in away games. Watford's advantage in shooting efficiency (5.92 shots on target per game vs. 2.17) and superior xG (1.8 vs. 1.1) further validate the prediction of a home victory. The visitors' poor form across their last twelve away fixtures (a streak of losses and draws), combined with failing to score in 42% of their away matches, strongly points towards a decisive Watford win.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Watford | Birmingham City | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 26% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Watford is 267% better for: last-5 form.
2.2 pts / match - Watford · 0.6 pts / match - Birmingham City
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Watford is 7% better for: goals scored per match.
1.42 goals / match - Watford · 1.33 goals / match - Birmingham City
Watford is 7% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.21 goals / match - Watford · 1.29 goals / match - Birmingham City
Watford scores in 83% of matches (20 of 24 matches), while Birmingham City keeps a clean sheet in 21% (5 of 24 matches).
Birmingham City scores in 79% of matches (19 of 24 matches), while Watford keeps a clean sheet in 13% (3 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Watford
Over / Under - Birmingham City
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Watford - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Birmingham City - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (9 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Watford
Birmingham City
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Watford | Liga | Birmingham City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.63 | 2.60 | • 2.63 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 71% | 59% | • 58% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 54% | 51% | • 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 13% | 23% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 73% | ▲ 83% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 77% | ▲ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Watford 0 - 0 - 1 Birmingham City. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Watford vs Birmingham City?
The Championship match finished Watford 3:0 Birmingham City. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Watford vs Birmingham City?
Watford score 1.42 goals per game on average and Birmingham City 1.33. The Championship average is 2.60 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 71% of Watford's matches and 58% of Birmingham City's.
What form are Watford and Birmingham City in?
Over the last 5 games Watford have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Birmingham City 0-3-2 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Watford vs Birmingham City?
The statistical background for Watford vs Birmingham City — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.