Watford vs Wrexham: match statistics
Watford displays solid form in home matches with a 50% win rate and an impressive +7 goal difference at their own stadium. The hosts average 1.44 goals per game at home while conceding only 1.06, and their xG (1.7) exceeds their xG Against (1.25), demonstrating offensive efficiency. Wrexham, despite a higher league position, shows significantly weaker away form – averaging only 1.24 goals scored against 1.0 conceded, and their away xG (0.97) is worryingly low compared to their xG Against (1.73). The recent form of both teams is evenly matched (Watford 1.4 PPG vs Wrexham 1.8 PPG), but the hosts' advantage in home statistics and Wrexham's vulnerability in away matches strongly advocate for a Watford victory. However, Wrexham's high away draw percentage (35%) and solid away defense (35% clean sheets) suggest the match could be tight, hence a significant probability of shared points.
Watford vs Wrexham: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Watford played Wrexham in Championship (England). The match was played on 17 March 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Watford: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Wrexham: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Watford scores 1.27 and concedes 1.22 goals per match. Wrexham scores 1.54 and concedes 1.27. League average: 2.58 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Watford 62%, Wrexham 65%. Over 2.5: Watford 46%, Wrexham 46%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Watford has higher xG: 1.51 vs 1.30. Watford: 14.1 shots per match, Wrexham: 11.4.
Match halves
Watford: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.73. Wrexham: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.86.
Goals by minute
Watford: 76-90+ (12 goals). Wrexham: 76-90+ (16 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Championship: 2.58 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Watford displays solid form in home matches with a 50% win rate and an impressive +7 goal difference at their own stadium. The hosts average 1.44 goals per game at home while conceding only 1.06, and their xG (1.7) exceeds their xG Against (1.25), demonstrating offensive efficiency. Wrexham, despite a higher league position, shows significantly weaker away form – averaging only 1.24 goals scored against 1.0 conceded, and their away xG (0.97) is worryingly low compared to their xG Against (1.73). The recent form of both teams is evenly matched (Watford 1.4 PPG vs Wrexham 1.8 PPG), but the hosts' advantage in home statistics and Wrexham's vulnerability in away matches strongly advocate for a Watford victory. However, Wrexham's high away draw percentage (35%) and solid away defense (35% clean sheets) suggest the match could be tight, hence a significant probability of shared points.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Watford | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Wrexham is 71% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Watford · 2.4 pts / match - Wrexham
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Wrexham is 21% better for: goals scored per match.
1.27 goals / match - Watford · 1.54 goals / match - Wrexham
Watford scores in 76% of matches (28 of 37 matches), while Wrexham keeps a clean sheet in 27% (10 of 37 matches).
Wrexham scores in 86% of matches (32 of 37 matches), while Watford keeps a clean sheet in 16% (6 of 37 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Watford
Over / Under - Wrexham
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Wrexham is 39% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.05 pts / match - Watford · 1.46 pts / match - Wrexham
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Watford - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Wrexham - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (16 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Watford
Wrexham
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Watford | Liga | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.49 | 2.58 | ▲ 2.81 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 62% | 56% | ▲ 65% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 46% | 50% | ▼ 46% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 16% | 25% | ▲ 27% |
| Goal before half-time | • 70% | 71% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | • 78% | 77% | ▲ 84% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Watford 0 - 1 - 0 Wrexham. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Watford vs Wrexham?
The Championship match finished Watford 3:1 Wrexham. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Watford vs Wrexham?
Watford score 1.27 goals per game on average and Wrexham 1.54. The Championship average is 2.58 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 62% of Watford's matches and 65% of Wrexham's.
What form are Watford and Wrexham in?
Over the last 5 games Watford have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Wrexham 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Watford vs Wrexham?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Watford vs Wrexham: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.