Wda Świecie vs Noteć Czarnków: match statistics

Wda Świecie remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws, while Noteć Czarnków have managed 3 victories and 2 defeats over the same period. The hosts have won both of their home matches so far, scoring an average of 3 goals with 58% possession, while the visitors average 2.33 goals away from home. Wda are clearly more clinical, converting 24% of their shots compared with Noteć’s 12%, despite the Czarnków side attempting more shots—19.33 per match on average. The quality of chances could also prove decisive, as Noteć allow opponents an average xG of 2.15 away from home, compared with 1.30 xG conceded by Wda at home. Both teams regularly find the net, but Wda Świecie’s unbeaten run and home advantage make them the stronger pick to win.

Wda Świecie have recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Noteć Czarnków, averaging 1.8 and 2.0 goals scored respectively. The hosts have not kept a clean sheet this season, while their average xG against stands at 1.69, which favours a goal from the attack-minded Noteć. The visitors score an average of 2.33 goals per match and create 1.94 xG, while Wda concede 1.5 goals on average. Noteć do have a 67% clean-sheet rate, but Wda average 7 shots on target and record 1.61 xG, so they should create genuine chances to break down this defence. BTTS - Yes is therefore more likely, also compared with the league average, where both teams score in 71% of matches.

The profile of both teams clearly favors at least two goals: Wda averages 1.50 goals, while Noteć averages as many as 2.33. Noteć produces an average of 1.94 xG per match, whereas Wda’s defense allows opponents 1.69 xG, strengthening the case for an away goal. On the other hand, Wda averages 1.61 xG, and Noteć allows opponents 2.15 xG, so the hosts should also create genuine scoring chances. Over 1.5 goals has landed in all of Wda’s matches and in 67% of Noteć’s games, while the league average of 3.53 goals further confirms the attacking context. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 3.40 goals provides a significant margin above this line.

Wda Świecie are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws, while Noteć Czarnków have lost 2 of their 5 games over the same period. During this run, the hosts conceded an average of just 1.0 goals per match and only 0.2 after the break, which increases their chances of maintaining a favourable result. Wda were leading at half-time in 40% of their recent matches and scored an average of 0.8 goals before the interval, compared with Noteć’s 0.6. The Czarnków side do have a higher season-long goalscoring average—2.33 compared with Wda’s 1.50—but the hosts have been significantly more effective defensively in the final phase of matches. Therefore, the most likely scenario is Wda leading at the break and securing a full-time victory, although the visitors’ high attacking activity increases the risk of an equaliser or a turnaround.