Yanbian Longding vs Nantong Zhiyun: match statistics

Nantong Zhiyun sit 2nd and have been clearly stronger in recent matches: they have won 3 of their last 5, while Yanbian Longding have not won any and have lost 4. The visitors have conceded just 3 goals over this period, compared with 10 by the hosts, which favors Nantong. However, Yanbian average 1.42 goals scored and 0.92 conceded at home, while Nantong average 1 goal scored and conceded per away game. The quality of the chances created is almost identical — the hosts’ home xG is 1.38, while the visitors’ away xG is 1.37 — so the form advantage may not be enough to secure an away win. With 50% of Yanbian’s home matches and 67% of Nantong’s away matches ending in a draw, the points are most likely to be shared.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Yanbian Longding’s defensive record: the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their matches and concede an average of 0.62 goals, while Nantong Zhiyun have failed to score in 33% of their games. The hosts scoring is not a certainty either: they have averaged just 0.8 goals across their last 5 matches, while the visitors conceded only 0.6 per game over that period. However, there is a clear risk to the BTTS - No pick: Yanbian conceded an average of 2.0 goals in their last 5 matches, while Nantong scored 1.4. Both teams have scored in 38% of the hosts’ matches this season and 67% of the visitors’ matches, so the edge for the scenario in which at least one team fails to score is modest. This does not necessarily mean a 0-0 result; it means only that at least one team is expected not to score.

Yanbian’s matches have finished under 3.5 goals in 77% of cases, compared with 75% for Nantong, providing a clear signal in favour of this line. The hosts score an average of 1.69 goals and concede 0.62, while the visitors score and concede 1.00 goal per match; these averages do not point to frequent games with at least 4 goals. However, caution is warranted: Yanbian have conceded an average of 2.0 goals over their last 5 matches, although Nantong have conceded just 0.6 over the same period. The projected total of 2.25 goals and the season-long percentages of matches finishing under 3.5 goals support this line over the riskier 2.5-goal threshold.

Although Yanbian won 77% of their home matches and Nantong just 17% of their away games, recent form clearly favours the visitors: the hosts have lost four of their last five matches, while Nantong have won three. A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Nantong were level at the break in three of their last five matches and did not concede in the first half in any of them. After the break, the advantage could shift to the visitors: they have averaged 1.0 goals in the second half across their last five matches, while Yanbian have conceded an average of 1.2 over the same period. The X/2 HT/FT pick reflects this difference in current form, although Nantong’s 67% rate of away draws means a full-time draw remains a significant alternative.