Yokohama vs Oita Trinita: match statistics

Yokohama are favourites: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Oita Trinita have recorded just 1 win and 4 draws over the same period. At home, Yokohama have won 75% of their matches and scored an average of 3 goals, whereas Oita have yet to win away and have managed just 0.25 goals per match. Yokohama’s advantage is also reflected in the quality of chances created: their home xG stands at 1.81, compared with Oita’s away xG of 1.08, while the visitors allow opponents chances worth 1.68 xG. Oita concede only 0.5 goals per away match and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their games, so a draw remains a realistic possibility. However, with the visitors failing to score in 75% of their away matches, Yokohama are more likely to come out on top.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is Oita’s poor away scoring record: they average just 0.25 goals and have failed to score in 75% of those matches. The visitors average 2.25 shots on target per game, with a shot conversion rate of 3%, making it difficult to break this trend. Yokohama have greater attacking potential at home, averaging 1.6 goals, while Oita concede an average of 0.5 away from home. This makes the BTTS - No pick hinge primarily on the risk of the visitors failing to score. However, this is not a strong signal: Yokohama have not kept a clean sheet at home, and Oita have averaged 1 goal and recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches. Therefore, the likelihood that at least one team will fail to score is only marginally higher.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: all of Oita’s matches so far and 80% of Yokohama’s matches have finished with no more than three goals. Oita averages just 0.25 goals per match and has failed to score in 75% of its games, limiting the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Yokohama averages 1.6 goals, but Oita concedes only 0.5, so a one-sided match with four goals is difficult to envisage. Yokohama’s last five matches averaged 3.2 goals, which poses a risk to this pick; however, Oita conceded an average of just 0.8 goals over the same period. The forecast of 2.20 total goals supports Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest half-time signal points to a draw: Oita Trinita were level at the break in all four of their away matches, scoring and conceding no goals before half-time. Yokohama also failed to score before the break in four of their five home matches, so their advantage may only emerge later. After half-time, the hosts average 1.0 goals scored and 0.2 conceded at home, while the visitors score 0.25 and concede 0.5 goals in this period away from home. Yokohama’s case for a full-time win is also supported by their average of 1.6 goals scored per match, compared with Oita’s 0.25, as well as the visitors’ xG conceded of 1.68. The X/1 pick is therefore best supported by the data, although Oita’s four draws in their last five matches make X/X a significant alternative.