Yongin City vs Ansan Greeners: match statistics

Yongin City have a slight home advantage, although they have won only 15% of their home matches, while as many as 54% have ended in draws. The hosts average 1.15 goals per game at home, with an xG of 1.14, while Ansan Greeners score 1.00 goals away from home, with an xG of 1.01. The biggest difference is in defence: Yongin concede an average of 1.31 goals at home, compared with 1.82 for Ansan away; the visitors also allow chances worth 2.11 xG, against 1.56 for the hosts. In their last five matches, Yongin have picked up 5 points and conceded 6 goals, while Ansan have collected 3 points and conceded 11. The visitors' weaker defence points towards a Yongin win, but the hosts' high home draw rate means a share of the points remains a realistic outcome.

Both teams have scored in 81% of Yongin City’s matches, and the hosts are yet to keep a clean sheet, strengthening the case for Ansan to find the net. Meanwhile, Ansan concede an average of 1.82 goals per match and have let in 11 goals across their last five fixtures, giving Yongin good reason to score as well. Each team’s last five matches have seen both sides score in 60% of games, although Ansan’s season rate is only 45%. The risk of the visitors failing to score remains significant—they have drawn a blank in 27% of their matches—but with Yongin conceding an average of 2.06 goals, BTTS - Yes looks more likely.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line was cleared in 94% of Yongin City matches and 73% of Ansan Greeners matches. The hosts concede an average of 2.06 goals per match, while the visitors concede 1.82, meaning both defences give their opponents chances to score. Ansan have conceded 11 goals in their last five matches, while Yongin have scored 6, further supporting the likelihood of the hosts finding the net. The Over 2.5 goals line is less reliable, having been cleared in 75% of Yongin matches but only 45% of Ansan matches; therefore, the case for Over 1.5 goals is more compelling.

A draw at half-time is the most likely starting point: Yongin City were level at the break in 38% of matches, compared with 45% for Ansan Greeners. The visitors failed to score before half-time in 64% of their games, further reducing the likelihood of them taking an early lead. Recent form supports a home win after the break: Yongin averaged 1.0 points across their last five matches, compared with 0.6 for the visitors, who lost four of those five games. During this period, Ansan conceded an average of 1.6 goals in second halves and 2.2 goals per match, so the X/1 scenario has the strongest backing in the current data. However, this is not a confident pick, as Yongin lost 75% of their matches over the season, while Ansan averaged 1.27 points per match compared with the hosts' 0.50.