York9 FC vs Supra du Québec: match statistics

Supra du Québec hold a slight advantage in the table, sitting 5th compared with York9 FC in 7th, but above all they post stronger defensive away figures. At home, the hosts concede as many as 2.57 goals per game and allow opponents an xG of 2.19, while the visitors score 1.86 goals per away match. The Québec side also create more chances, averaging 13.71 shots and 5.29 on target per game, compared with York9’s 11.29 shots and 4 on target. Both teams have collected 1 point per game over their last five matches, but York9 have conceded 13 goals in that period, compared with 9 for Supra. The hosts are capable of scoring 2 goals per home game, so a balanced, high-scoring contest is a realistic scenario; however, York9’s weak defence slightly increases the visitors’ chances of securing victory.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong: BTTS occurred in 78% of York9 FC’s matches and as many as 86% of Supra du Québec’s games, compared with the league average of 65%. In their last five matches, the hosts recorded BTTS in 80% of cases, while the visitors did so in all 100%, conceding an average of 2.6 and 1.8 goals respectively. Neither team has kept a clean sheet this season, while Supra averages 1.86 goals per match and York9 FC creates chances worth 1.64 xG at home. The visitors’ defence concedes an average of 2.00 goals, while the hosts register 4.33 shots on target per game, making a York9 FC goal highly likely. At the same time, the hosts have conceded 13 goals in their last five appearances, which clearly strengthens the chances of an effective Supra du Québec attack. Therefore, BTTS - Yes is the recommended option, while BTTS - No would mean that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

Neither team has kept a clean sheet this season, with York9 conceding an average of 1.67 goals, while Supra du Québec score 1.86 goals per match. In their last five games, the hosts conceded as many as 13 goals, or 2.6 per match, while their average xG conceded to opponents stands at a high 2.24. The 1.5-goal line was covered in 78% of York9’s matches and 86% of Supra’s, while both teams regularly feature in games with a goal scored by each side: in 78% and 86% of cases, respectively. An additional argument is the visitors’ attacking form, as they produced an xG of 1.71 and scored 8 goals in their last five matches. Over 1.5 has the strongest statistical support, as a scenario with a maximum of one goal clearly does not fit the defensive weaknesses of either team or their high attacking activity.

A draw at half-time is best supported by York9’s profile: the hosts have never been leading at the break and went into half-time level in 67% of their matches. Supra also tend to start cautiously, drawing after 45 minutes in 33% of their games, while keeping a clean sheet before the break in 75% of their last five appearances. However, the visitors’ advantage should increase after the interval, as they average 1.86 goals per match compared with York9’s 1.11 and register 5.29 shots on target per game against the hosts’ 4.33. York9 concede an average of 1.67 goals per match overall, rising to 2.60 across their last five games, and have conceded seven goals in the final 15 minutes. The HT/FT scenario of a half-time draw followed by a Supra win best combines a cautious first half with greater attacking potential and the hosts’ defensive vulnerability later in the game.