Yverdon Sport vs Aarau: match statistics

Yverdon Sport remain unbeaten in their last five matches, collecting 9 points from 2 wins and 3 draws, while Aarau have managed just 5 points. Although the hosts are heavily inclined towards draws at home, they have not lost there, whereas Aarau lost their only away match so far, conceding 3 goals without scoring. The visitors’ away defence allows opponents an average xG of 1.85, significantly higher than the 0.94 xG created by Yverdon at home, giving the hosts a genuine chance to overcome their attacking caution. Aarau do average 13 shots away from home compared with Yverdon’s 7 at home, but this has not translated into goals, with a 0% conversion rate and 100% of matches ending without a goal scored. The hosts’ superior current form and Aarau’s poor away record point to a Yverdon Sport win, although the high percentage of home draws increases the risk of the points being shared.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by the current attacking form of both teams: Yverdon have averaged 2.4 goals in their last 5 matches, while Aarau have averaged 1.4. During this period, Aarau conceded as many as 2.0 goals per game, with an opposition xG of 1.80, so the hosts should create plenty of chances. The visitors also have strong arguments in front of goal, as their average xG across their last five appearances stands at 1.57, while Yverdon allow opponents an xG of 1.54. BTTS landed in 60% of Yverdon’s and 80% of Aarau’s last five matches, clearly above the league average of 53% on the visitors’ side. The main risk is Aarau’s failure to score in their away matches so far this season, but neither team has kept a clean sheet recently, and their recent chance creation supports the expectation of a goal from the visitors.

Yverdon have averaged 2.4 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Aarau have conceded 2.0 goals per game during the same period, clearly supporting the hosts’ attacking output. Despite their weaker away record, Aarau have recently created chances worth 1.57 xG per match, while Yverdon have allowed opponents 1.54 xG. The combined goals average across the teams’ last five matches stands at 3.4 goals each, with games featuring at least three goals accounting for 60% and 80% of their respective results. In addition, both teams have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their matches so far, making it difficult to expect either side to completely shut the game down. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 3.00 goals provides a substantial safety margin even if the final score falls below recent trends.

Yverdon Sport have started their home matches very strongly so far: they led at the break in 2 of 2 games, scored an average of 1.0 goal before half-time and conceded none. Aarau have yet to score away from home, have lost both matches and conceded as many as 3.0 goals on average after the break. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in their current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Aarau have conceded 2.0 goals per game. Although Aarau’s xG stands at 1.37 compared with Yverdon’s 1.22, the visitors have failed to convert their chances into a single away goal, whereas the hosts have won 50% of their home matches and remain unbeaten there. The most likely scenario is therefore for Yverdon to take the lead at the break and maintain it until the final whistle — HT/FT 1/1.