Zagłębie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice: match statistics

Piast Gliwice has a clear attacking edge: they scored 7 goals in the last 5 matches (1.4 goals per match) versus Zagłębie’s 3 goals (0.6 per match). At the same time the hosts’ defense looks slightly better numerically — Zagłębie conceded 4 goals in those 5 fixtures (0.8 per match), while Piast conceded 7 (1.4 per match). Recent form over the last 5 rounds shows Piast with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, and Zagłębie with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses; this translates to an average points per game of 1.0 for Piast versus 0.8 for Zagłębie. The table gap is also significant — Piast sits 9th and Zagłębie 17th, which suggests greater stability for the visitors. Considering Piast’s superior scoring efficiency and higher average points, I project a away win in a low-scoring match.

In the last 5 matches, Zagłębie had BTTS at 20% (1 of 5), while Piast had 80% (4 of 5), indicating a clear asymmetry and a strong offensive signal from Piast. Looking at xG, Piast averages xG 2.06 versus xG against Zagłębie 1.96, and Zagłębie has average xG 1.45 versus xG against Piast 1.11, so both teams generate roughly 1.1–2.06 xG per game and should create scoring opportunities. Actual goals data also supports BTTS: Piast scored 7 and conceded 7 in 5 matches (avg 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded), while Zagłębie scored 3 and conceded 4 (0.6 scored and 0.8 conceded). Although Zagłębie’s goals-per-game is low at 0.6, its xG 1.45 indicates missed chances, and Piast regularly concedes (1.4 per game), increasing the likelihood both teams will score. Based on these figures I pick BTTS - Yes with a probability of 65% versus 35% for No.

In the last 5 matches Zagłębie averaged 0.6 goals per game and Piast 1.4, with xG over the last 5 at 1.45 for Zagłębie and 2.06 for Piast. Zagłębie conceded an average of 1.96 xG against, and Piast 1.11, which yields a simple xG assessment of 1.28 for Zagłębie (mean of 1.45 and 1.11) and 2.01 for Piast (mean of 2.06 and 1.96), totaling 3.29 xG. Combining xG (70%) with actual goals per game (30%) produces expected 1.08 goals for Zagłębie and 1.83 for Piast, a total of 2.91 goals. At this total the probability of Over 2.5 goals (>=3) is about 56%, Over 1.5 about 79%, and Over 3.5 about 33%; additionally Piast had 60% of matches with over 2.5 goals and 80% BTTS in the last 5, which strengthens the over signal. Therefore I recommend an Over 2.5 bet as the strongest signal, mainly due to Piast’s high xG (2.06) and Zagłębie’s weaker defense (1.96 xG against).

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows Zagłębie scored a total of 2 first-half goals (0.4 on average), while Piast scored 5 first-half goals (1.0 on average), suggesting greater Piast activity before the break. At the same time Zagłębie kept a clean sheet at half-time in 80% of cases (4 of 5), and the home side were level at half-time in 60% of matches (3 of 5), so the most frequent half-time state is a draw. In second halves Piast averaged 1.2 goals and Zagłębie 0.4 (last 5 matches), and the overall goals average from the last 5 is 1.4 for Piast versus 0.6 for Zagłębie, which increases the chances of the visitors winning after 90 minutes. Additionally the hosts led at the break in only 20% of cases (1 of 5), and the guests also in 20%, therefore the strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a Piast victory at full-time (X/2). I assign the X/2 scenario the highest probability at 40%, the draw/draw scenario 25% as the second option, and all other outcomes combined 35%.