Zlín vs Teplice: match statistics

I back a home win (Zlín). Zlín have scored 40 goals this season versus 32 by Teplice, and in the last 5 matches Zlín have 8 goals to the visitors’ 5. At home Zlín average 12.13 shots and 3.81 on target per match with a 13% conversion, while Teplice away average 10.2 shots and 3.27 on target with a 10% conversion, giving Zlín the advantage in both quality and quantity of chances. In the last 5 fixtures Zlín are 2-1-2 (1.4 points per game) and Teplice 1-1-3 (0.8 points per game), so the hosts show better recent points form. Defensively the visitors keep 27% clean sheets on the road and concede 1.4 goals away vs. Zlín’s 1.56 conceded at home, but xG shows Teplice allow 1.79 xG on the road vs. 1.62 xG against Zlín at home, which indicates the visitors’ defense can be compact but also exposes them to higher-quality chances for the hosts; therefore I estimate probabilities of roughly 55% for Zlín, 30% for a draw and 15% for Teplice.

I back BTTS (YES) as the more likely outcome: 70% for 'yes' and 30% for 'no'. Zlín has 100% BTTS in the last 5 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded in those games — a strong signal for both teams to score. Teplice record 60% BTTS both seasonally and in the last 5 matches, averaging 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded, so they also regularly both concede and score. xG figures of 1.31 (Zlín) vs 1.18 (Teplice) and shots on target 3.47 vs 3.27 demonstrate similar attacking potency, while season goals conceded 50 (Zlín) and 40 (Teplice) and xG against 1.39 vs 1.79 indicate defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. In light of these numbers and a league BTTS rate of 51%, the scenario of both teams scoring is the dominant outcome.

Seasonal averages for goals scored are 1.0 for Zlín and 1.0 for Teplice, but xG suggests more: Zlín's attacking xG is 1.31 and Teplice's defensive xG is 1.79, which averaged gives ~1.55 expected goals for the home side. For the away side, attacking xG 1.18 versus Zlín's defensive xG 1.39 yields ~1.29 expected goals, totaling about 2.84 goals in the match — above the league average of 2.6; average shots on target 3.47 vs 3.27 further support the offensive potential. Seasonal shares of matches over 1.5 goals are 59% (Zlín) and 67% (Teplice), and in the last 5 matches Zlín had 80% of games over 2.5 and 100% BTTS, which increases the likelihood of at least two goals. A Poisson model with lambda≈2.84 gives roughly a 78% chance for Over 1.5, ~54% for Over 2.5 and ~32% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest and safest signal from the data is a play on Over 1.5.

Zlín has a clear lead at the break: they led in 41% of matches and scored on average 0.59 goals by half-time versus 0.33 for Teplice, with an average of 0.47 conceded in the first half vs 0.73 for the visitors, which favors the home side leading at the break. The combined average of both teams yields an estimated half-time draw probability of around 48% (35% vs 60%), so the risk of a draw at the break is material. For the Half-Time/Full-Time outcome both teams have similar end-of-match capabilities (xG 1.31 vs 1.18) and Teplice draw 53% of matches; assuming an average chance of Zlín leading at the break ≈37% (the mean of 41% and 33%) and a conservative retention of the lead at about 60%, we obtain roughly 22% for 1/1. As a result the strongest signal is 1/1 (≈22%), with a simultaneously high probability of X/X (≈22%) given the visitors’ tendency to draw, while the remaining scenarios have clearly lower numerical support.