Široki Brijeg vs Radnik Bijeljina: match statistics

Široki Brijeg have a clearly better record in their last five matches: they remain unbeaten with 2 wins and 3 draws, scoring 10 goals and conceding 5. During the same period, Radnik Bijeljina have failed to win a single game, scoring just 1 goal and conceding 9, which significantly reduces their chances of producing an effective away performance. The hosts are also higher in the table, sitting 2nd compared to the visitors’ 8th place, and have a 2:1 goal record over the course of the season, while Radnik suffered a four-goal defeat (1:5). At home, Široki Brijeg average 1.17 xG while allowing opponents 0.88 xG, whereas Radnik’s away matches generate as much as 1.41 xG for their opponents. Both teams drew their only previous match in the relevant home or away role goalless, so a draw remains a realistic alternative; however, current form and the attacking advantage favor the hosts.

The strongest signal is Radnik Bijeljina’s very poor finishing: they have scored just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 per game, while BTTS occurred in only 20% of those fixtures. Široki Brijeg conceded an average of 1.0 goal during this period, but their current defensive form is not enough to offset such a low attacking potential from the opposition. The hosts are significantly more dangerous going forward, averaging 2.0 goals in their last 5 appearances, whereas Radnik conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match. Although Radnik’s average xG stands at 1.13, their actual goal output remains clearly lower, making the scenario in which at least one team—above all the visitors—fails to score more likely. This supports BTTS - No: at least one team will not score; it does not automatically mean a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

Široki Brijeg averaged 2.0 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Radnik Bijeljina managed just 0.2 goals per game. The visitors conceded 1.8 goals per match during this period, clearly supporting a projection of around 1.65 goals for the home side, although Široki’s defense allowed an average of only 1.0 goal. The xG figures are more evenly matched, at 1.24 for Široki and 1.13 for Radnik, but the visitors’ poor actual finishing limits their expected contribution to 0.70 goals. The combined projected total of 2.35 goals is below the league average of 2.63, while the Under 3.5 line also has an edge because even with a strong attacking performance from the hosts, at least 4 goals would be required. Široki’s last five matches produced Over 2.5 goals in 80% of cases, compared with just 40% for Radnik, making Under 3.5 the safer and stronger selection.

Široki Brijeg are in clearly better recent form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Radnik have scored just 0.2 goals per game and allowed 1.8. The home side led at the break in 40% of those matches, whereas the visitors never went into half-time ahead and were already trailing in 40% of cases. After the interval, Široki averaged 1.0 goal per match and kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games, while Radnik failed to score in any second half. The quality of chances also favors the hosts, with an average xG of 1.44 compared with Radnik’s 1.40, and the visitors’ poor finishing further strengthens the scenario of Široki leading at half-time and winning at full-time (1/1).