2 de Mayo vs Guaraní: match statistics

Guaraní appears to be the favorite: the visitors have 6 wins and 23 goals this season, and in the last 5 matches they recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, averaging 2.0 points per game. 2 de Mayo has only 3 wins and 12 goals this season; in their last five fixtures they are winless (0-1-4), averaging 0.2 points and conceding as many as 15 goals (3.0 per game). In attack the visitors are more efficient: Guaraní scores 1.13 goals on average away versus the hosts’ 0.63 at home, and the visitors’ away xG is 1.16 compared to the hosts’ 0.94. The visitors also have better conversion (11% vs 6%), more on-target shots per game away (3.38 vs 2.38) and a higher clean sheet rate (38% vs 25%), and in the last 5 matches they have conceded only 2 goals versus 15 for 2 de Mayo. Considering the points average (2.0 vs 0.2), the xG advantage (1.16 vs 0.94) and the hosts’ significantly worse defensive form, I forecast a victory for the visitors.

Seasonal indicators show a moderate chance of both teams scoring: 2 de Mayo has BTTS at 44%, Guaraní 50%, and the league average is 50%. In the last 5 matches there is a clear contrast — 2 de Mayo registers BTTS in 60% and has conceded 15 goals total (3.0 per game), while Guaraní has BTTS 20% and conceded only 2 goals in those 5 fixtures (0.4 per game). Seasonal offensive xG values are 1.37 for 2 de Mayo and 1.16 for Guaraní, with xG against at 1.33 (home) versus 1.29 (away), indicating chance creation and concession. Additionally, the hosts average 4.67 shots on target versus the visitors' 3.38, and clean sheets occur in 33% and 38% of matches respectively, which supports the occurrence of Goal/Goal. Considering 2 de Mayo's weak defense in the last 5 matches (3.0 conceded per game) and the fact that Guaraní scores on average 1.0 goal in those games with a seasonal BTTS of 50%, I predict BTTS - Yes with a probability of 64% versus 36%.

The model based on xG and defensive profiles yields expected goals: 2 de Mayo 1.33 and Guaraní 1.25, total 2.58. Offensive xG are 1.37 (2 de Mayo) and 1.16 (Guaraní), while conceded xG are 1.29 (Guaraní) and 1.33 (2 de Mayo), supporting the adopted mean. From a Poisson distribution, a total of 2.58 corresponds to roughly a 73% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 48% for 3+ goals (Over 2.5) and about 26% for 4+ (Over 3.5). Seasonal metrics confirm the edge for Over 1.5: 2 de Mayo has 78% of home matches over 1.5, Guaraní 63% on the road, and the league averages 2.42 goals per game. Additionally, in the last 5 matches 2 de Mayo conceded on average 3.0 goals at home (15 conceded in 5), while Guaraní shows better away form (0.4 conceded in the last 5), which nevertheless does not reduce the combined expected goals; therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

The strongest signal comes from the first half: 2 de Mayo led at the break in 44% of matches, while Guaraní led in only 13% of games, so HT/FT favors the home side at half-time. Over full matches, the hosts have 56% home wins versus just 13% away wins for Guaraní, increasing the likelihood they will maintain the lead through full-time. Additionally, home xG is 1.37 vs 1.16 for the visitors, average shots on target 4.67 vs 3.38 and a higher shot conversion rate (13% vs 11%), which supports the scenario that 2 de Mayo will create and convert more chances. Although Guaraní have better recent form in the last five matches (60% wins vs 0% for the hosts), first-half and HT data (scoredAVGHT_home 0.56 vs 0.50 and concededAVGHT_home 0.33 vs 0.63) argue for a 1/1 outcome, which I assign a 38% probability. For balance I assign 25% to a level full-time draw (FT=X) and 22% to an away win (FT=2), allocating the remaining scenarios according to the distribution of half-time results.