AEK Athens vs Aris: match statistics

AEK Athens remain unbeaten in their last five matches, although three of those ended in draws, and have scored 11 goals while conceding just 3 during that run. At home, the hosts have so far won both? No, the available data indicate a 100% win rate, averaging 4 goals scored and conceding none, with an xG of 2.76 and opponents’ xG at just 0.78. Aris are also in excellent form, with 4 wins in their last 5 matches and 12 goals scored, while averaging 3 goals per game away from home. AEK’s advantage stems from the superior quality of the chances they create, as they average 24 shots and 11 on target compared with Aris’ 19 and 7, as well as from their clearly more stable defence. The visitors concede an average of 2 goals away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road, so the home advantage marginally favours AEK.

Seasonal data provides a very strong signal in favour of goals for both sides: AEK and Aris have a BTTS rate of 100%, and neither team has kept a clean sheet. Both teams create high-quality chances, with an average xG of 2.03 each, while AEK averages 10 shots on target and Aris scores 3.0 goals per match. In their last five fixtures, Aris averaged 2.4 goals scored but also conceded 1.8, clearly favouring an open-game scenario. AEK have been more solid defensively recently, conceding just 3 goals in five matches, while their BTTS rate over that period stands at 40%; therefore, the risk of Aris failing to score remains significant. Nevertheless, the visitors’ attacking strength, their xG of 1.90 across the last five matches, and both teams’ poor seasonal defensive record slightly support BTTS - Yes.

AEK have scored an average of 2.2 goals in their last 5 matches, while Aris have conceded 1.8 goals per game over the same period, clearly supporting the hosts’ attacking output. The visitors also display an offensive profile: they have averaged 2.4 goals with an xG of 1.90, while AEK have allowed opponents an xG of 1.21. At least 3 goals were scored in 60% of AEK’s and 80% of Aris’s last five matches, although the hosts’ stronger defence reduces confidence in the Over 2.5 goals market. Both teams generate plenty of attempts, averaging 17 shots for AEK and 19 for Aris, with 10 and 7 efforts respectively on target. The strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.75 goals leaves a clear margin above this line.

AEK have a clearly stronger first-half profile: in their last five matches, they were leading at the break on 60% of occasions, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding none. Aris were level at half-time in 60% of their recent matches, while their first-half averages stand at just 0.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. The hosts average 10 shots on target per match compared with Aris’s 7, while their xG is 2.03, with just 1.15 xG allowed at their own end. Although Aris have won four of their last five matches and average 1.8 goals after the break, AEK concede only 0.6 goals per second half during this period. The most likely scenario is therefore an HT/FT outcome of 1/1, with AEK taking the lead before half-time and holding it until the final whistle.