Ajax vs NEC: match statistics
Ajax vs NEC: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ajax played NEC in Eredivisie (Netherlands). The match was played on 10 October 2026. Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Ajax: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. NEC: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ajax scores 3.00 and concedes 1.29 goals per match. NEC scores 1.71 and concedes 1.86. League average: 3.76 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ajax 71%, NEC 86%. Over 2.5: Ajax 86%, NEC 86%. League level: BTTS 69%, Over 2.5 73%.
xG, shots and style
Ajax has higher xG: 2.63 vs 1.71. Ajax: 24.7 shots per match, NEC: 15.1.
Match halves
Ajax: half-time lead 57%, second-half goals 1.86. NEC: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Ajax: 31-45+ (6 goals). NEC: 0-15 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eredivisie: 3.76 goals per match, BTTS 69%, Over 2.5 73%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-2-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Ajax sit 5th and have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while NEC, 11th in the table, have failed to win during that period and have suffered 3 defeats. The hosts scored 17 goals in those five matches, compared with just 4 for the visitors, pointing to a clear gap in recent attacking form. At home, Ajax create chances worth an average xG of 2.81 and register 7.5 shots on target per match, compared with NEC’s away xG of 1.49 and 5 shots on target. The hosts’ defence is not entirely convincing, however: they concede an average of 2 goals at home and have yet to keep a clean sheet there, while NEC average 2.33 goals scored away from home. Despite this, Ajax’s advantage in chance quality and recent results makes a home win the likelier outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
BTTS has landed in 100% of Ajax’s home matches and 67% of NEC’s away matches, and neither team kept a clean sheet in those conditions. Ajax score an average of 1.25 goals at home with an xG of 1.87, while NEC score 2.33 goals away from home with an xG of 1.49, giving both sides a solid basis to find the net. In addition, the hosts concede an average of 2.0 goals at home and the visitors 1.67 away, strengthening the case for goals at both ends. NEC’s form warrants some caution: they have averaged just 0.8 goals in their last 5 matches and failed to score in 33% of their away games. Even so, the combination of a high BTTS frequency and a lack of clean sheets points towards BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line was cleared in 100% of Ajax’s home matches and NEC’s away matches in the sample. Ajax have averaged 3.4 goals scored across their last 5 matches, while NEC have conceded 2.8 goals per game over the same period, pointing to a strong scoring return from the hosts. Ajax’s average xG across their last 5 matches is 2.74, while NEC allow opponents chances worth 1.48 xG. Although NEC have averaged just 0.8 goals recently, Ajax have conceded an average of 2.0 goals at home and have not kept a clean sheet there, giving the visitors a chance to get on the scoresheet as well. Over 2.5 also has strong backing—cleared in 75% of Ajax’s analyzed home matches and 100% of NEC’s away matches—but the lower 1.5 line offers a clearer safety margin.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
In their last five matches, Ajax won three times and scored an average of 3.4 goals, while NEC did not win once and averaged 0.8 goals. The home side led at the break in three of those five matches, while the visitors did so in none; Ajax scored an average of 1.2 first-half goals, matching NEC’s average of 1.2 goals conceded in the first half. Ajax’s form after the break also supports them holding on to their lead: they averaged 2.2 goals in the second half, while NEC conceded 1.6. The 1/1 pick is not a certainty, however, as Ajax have drawn at half-time in three of their four home matches so far, while NEC have won two of their three away matches. Despite this caveat, Ajax’s clear advantage across their last five matches, both before and after the break, makes a home lead at half-time followed by a home win the most likely scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ajax | NEC | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 27% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ajax is 100% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Ajax · 1 pts / match - NEC
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ajax is 75% better for: goals scored per match.
3 goals / match - Ajax · 1.71 goals / match - NEC
Ajax is 44% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.29 goals / match - Ajax · 1.86 goals / match - NEC
Ajax scores in 100% of matches (7 of 7 matches), while NEC keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 7 matches).
NEC scores in 86% of matches (6 of 7 matches), while Ajax keeps a clean sheet in 29% (2 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ajax
Over / Under - NEC
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ajax is 55% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2 pts / match - Ajax · 1.29 pts / match - NEC
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ajax - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 57% of matches and wins 57%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
NEC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 3.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 0% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +7 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ajax
NEC
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eredivisie).
Teams vs league
| Ajax | Liga | NEC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 4.29 | 3.76 | ▼ 3.57 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 71% | 69% | ▲ 86% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 86% | 73% | ▲ 86% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 29% | 16% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 86% | 82% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 91% | ▼ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Ajax 0 - 2 - 0 NEC. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ajax vs NEC?
The Eredivisie match finished Ajax 1:1 NEC. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and NEC?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Ajax won 0, NEC won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Ajax vs NEC?
Ajax score 3.00 goals per game on average and NEC 1.71. The Eredivisie average is 3.76 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 73% of games. Both teams score in 71% of Ajax's matches and 86% of NEC's.
What form are Ajax and NEC in?
Over the last 5 games Ajax have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and NEC 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ajax vs NEC?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.