Al Nejmeh vs Al Ahed: match statistics

Al Nejmeh is the clear favorite, particularly at home: in home matches they have won 82% of games, average 2.36 goals scored and only 0.18 goals conceded per match, with 82% of home fixtures kept as clean sheets. In the last 5 matches overall Al Nejmeh have a record of 3 wins and 2 draws (0 losses) averaging 2.2 points per game, while Al Ahed over the same period have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses averaging 1.4 points per game; the hosts have conceded just 1 goal in those five fixtures versus 10 conceded by the visitors. In chance creation the hosts also dominate: on average 11.63 shots and 5.25 shots on target per home match compared to 8.38 and 4.23 on the road for Al Ahed. The quality of chances is confirmed by xG — 1.65 xG for Al Nejmeh in home matches versus 1.26 xG for Al Ahed away, and the defensive differential (0.18 goals conceded for the hosts vs 1.08 for the visitors away) provides a clear game-controlling advantage. Although Al Ahed have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches, their defensive vulnerability (10 goals conceded and a 38% away loss rate) makes a home victory the most likely outcome.

I tip 'no'. Al Nejmeh has only 27% of matches with BTTS this season and 45% clean sheets, and in the last 5 matches they conceded a total of 1 goal (0.2 avg), indicating strong defensive form for the home side. Al Ahed have attacking threat (11 goals in last 5, 2.2 avg; season 37 goals, 1.62 per match), but are vulnerable at the back (10 conceded in last 5, 2.0 avg; season 29 conceded). The xG profiles are similar (Al Nejmeh xG_for 1.25 and xG_against 1.10; Al Ahed xG_for 1.26 and xG_against 1.01) and a simple model would give about a 51% chance for BTTS, however actual BTTS rates (season 27% vs 38% and recent 20% vs 60%) and the fact Al Nejmeh have scored 47 and conceded only 13 this season argue for a clean sheet. Based on this I assign 34% to 'yes' and 66% to 'no' and select 'no' as the strongest signal from the data.

The combined xG for both teams is 1.25 (Al Nejmeh) + 1.26 (Al Ahed) = 2.51; after adjusting for opponent offensive and defensive strength I estimate 1.20 xG for the home side and 1.34 xG for the away side, totaling 2.54. With that profile the probability distribution yields about 72% for at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 47% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and about 25% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Historically the 1.5 line was exceeded in 64% of Al Nejmeh’s matches and 69% of Al Ahed’s matches, which on average provides ~67% support for Over 1.5. The last 5 matches show Al Ahed scoring on average 2.2 goals (11 in 5) and conceding 2.0 (10 in 5), while Al Nejmeh scores 1.2 and concedes 0.2 (6 and 1 in 5), which increases the likelihood of at least 2 goals. Additionally both teams average 8.55 and 8.38 shots with 4.55 and 4.23 shots on target and conversion rates of 17% and 19%, so I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Al Ahed holds a slight offensive edge: on average 1.62 goals per match versus Al Nejmeh’s 1.45, and in first halves they score 0.77 goals compared to the hosts’ 0.64 (18 vs 13 goals at the break). In their last 5 matches Al Ahed scored 11 first‑half goals (an average of 2.2 in the first half), while Al Nejmeh managed only 1 (0.25), which substantially increases the probability of the visitors leading at the break. After the break Al Ahed also performs better: they average 1.77 points in second halves, have a positive goal differential of +5 and win 54% of second halves, while conceding on average 0.46 goals after the break versus 0.82 for the hosts. Although Al Nejmeh average 2.2 points in their last 5 matches, their poor first‑half efficiency (1 goal in 5 matches) makes the strongest signal from the data that Al Ahed will lead at half‑time and maintain the win by full‑time (HT/FT = 2/2).