Andijan vs Xorazm: match statistics

Andijan have a clear home advantage: they win 44% of their home matches, while Xorazm win just 11% of their away games. The hosts create more chances, averaging 1.50 xG and 4.56 shots on target per match, compared with Xorazm’s meagre 0.88 xG and 2.56 shots on target away from home. Andijan’s defence concedes an average of 1.00 goal at home, whereas the visitors allow 1.56 goals per away match and give opponents 1.72 xG. Both teams have collected 7 points from their last five matches, but Andijan have conceded only 4 goals during that period, compared with Xorazm’s 10. The visitors’ low away scoring average of 0.78 goals points to a controlled home win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Andijan had BTTS in only 44% of their matches this season, while none of their last five fixtures ended with both teams scoring. The hosts managed just 0.6 goals per game during this run, whereas Xorazm kept a clean sheet in only 22% of their appearances, giving Andijan a reasonable but limited chance of scoring. However, the key factor is that Xorazm average only 0.78 goals per game this season, generate an xG of 0.88, and fail to score in 33% of matches. Andijan have conceded only 0.8 goals per game recently, while their average xG against stands at 1.29, suggesting that the visitors may struggle to break down the defence. Although Xorazm have recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches and concede as many as 2.0 goals per game, the weak seasonal attacking output of both teams reduces the likelihood of goals at both ends.

Andijan average 1.18 xG, while Xorazm’s defence concedes an average of 1.72 xG, giving the hosts a realistic projection of around 1.4 goals. The visitors score just 0.78 goals per match this season and generate 0.88 xG, although they have recently averaged 1.4 goals per game. Both teams recorded results below 3.5 goals in 78% of their league matches, and neither averages more than 1.11 goals over the course of the season. They also rarely produce high individual totals: Andijan have not scored at least three goals in any match, and the same applies to Xorazm. The estimated combined total of 2.50 goals supports the Under 3.5 selection, as a four-goal or higher outcome would require a clear deviation from both teams’ typical profiles.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Andijan victory, as the hosts have neither scored nor conceded before the break in any of their last five matches, resulting in five 0-0 half-time scores. Xorazm have also frequently gone into the break level, doing so in 56% of their matches, while their first-half average is just 0.33 goals scored. After the break, the hosts’ advantage should grow: Andijan score an average of 0.56 goals, whereas Xorazm concede as many as 0.89 goals per match in this period. The hosts’ final success is also supported by their higher xG, 1.18 compared with 0.88, as well as the visitors’ very poor defensive record, with Xorazm conceding an average of 1.56 goals per match this season and 2.0 in their last five appearances. Andijan have won 44% of their matches, compared with just 11% for Xorazm, so after a cautious first half, the most likely outcome is a turnaround in the hosts’ favour.