Annan Athletic vs Stranraer: match statistics

Stranraer sit 1st and have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while ninth-placed Annan Athletic have recorded 2 wins over the same period. Away from home, the visitors average 2.75 goals and 5.75 shots on target per match, while the hosts average 1.4 goals and 3.8 shots on target at home. Stranraer’s away shot conversion rate is 28%, compared with Annan’s 17% at home, although the gap in the quality of chances created is small: average xG stands at 1.32 versus 1.23. The hosts’ chances are boosted by the fact that the visitors concede an average of 1.5 goals away from home, with opponents recording an xG of 1.64, but Annan have lost 60% of their home matches. Greater finishing efficiency and stronger recent form therefore point to a Stranraer win, despite the risk of conceding.

Stranraer average 2.75 goals scored away from home and have found the net in every away match so far, which points to the visitors getting on the scoresheet. Annan average 1.2 goals at home, while Stranraer concede 1.5 goals per away match, so the hosts also have a realistic chance of scoring. In their last five matches, both teams scored in 40% of Annan’s games and 80% of Stranraer’s, highlighting a clear difference in their profiles. The main risk to BTTS - Yes is the hosts’ defence: they have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their home matches and concede just 0.4 goals per game there on average. Even so, the visitors’ potent attack and their defensive vulnerability give a slight edge to the scenario in which both sides score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: all of Stranraer’s away matches have gone over this line, although this has happened in only 40% of Annan Athletic’s home games. The visitors score an average of 2.75 goals away from home, but the hosts concede just 0.4 at home, so I estimate Stranraer’s tally more conservatively at 1.55 goals. Annan could add a goal, as the visitors concede an average of 1.5 goals away from home and have an average xG against of 1.64. A forecast of 2.85 goals gives roughly a 78% chance of at least two goals; Over 2.5 is less certain, particularly since only 20% of the hosts’ home matches have gone over that line.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Annan Athletic were level at the break in 3 of their 5 matches so far and kept a clean sheet in 4 of those 5, while Stranraer went into half-time level 3 times in their last 5 games. The visitors could gain the upper hand after the break, having averaged 1.6 goals in second halves across their last 5 matches compared with the hosts’ 0.4, and winning that half in 60% of games versus Annan’s 20%. Stranraer’s case is also supported by their average of 2.8 goals scored in their last 5 matches, compared with Annan’s 1.0. The possibility of the visitors leading at the break remains almost equally likely, as they were ahead at half-time in 3 of their 4 away matches so far. However, the hosts’ first-half defensive record slightly tips the HT/FT preference towards a draw at half-time and a Stranraer win at full-time.