APOEL vs AEK Larnaca: match statistics
APOEL vs AEK Larnaca: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
APOEL play AEK Larnaca in First Division (Cyprus). The match date is 3 May 2026 at 16:00. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
APOEL: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. AEK Larnaca: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
APOEL scores 1.47 and concedes 1.25 goals per match. AEK Larnaca scores 1.72 and concedes 0.92. League average: 2.64 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: APOEL 47%, AEK Larnaca 53%. Over 2.5: APOEL 50%, AEK Larnaca 42%. League level: BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
APOEL has higher xG: 1.59 vs 1.47. APOEL: 12.5 shots per match, AEK Larnaca: 11.5.
Match halves
APOEL: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.00. AEK Larnaca: half-time lead 53%, second-half goals 0.83.
Goals by minute
APOEL: 76-90+ (18 goals). AEK Larnaca: 76-90+ (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
First Division: 2.64 goals per match, BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
3 H2H matches: 0-1-2. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 67%.
Match description
I back an AEK Larnaca win ('2') because the visitors sit 2nd in the table versus APOEL in 5th and have a superior season record: 18 wins and 54 goals scored compared to the hosts' 14 wins and 52 goals. AEK is markedly stronger defensively — conceding 0.8 goals per away match on average, whereas APOEL concedes 1.19 at home; in the last 5 matches the hosts have conceded 12 goals versus just 4 conceded by AEK. APOEL generates more chances (home xG 1.78 and 13.94 shots per match, 5.25 on target) but has lower efficiency (conversion 12%) and a higher share of matches without scoring (19%) compared to AEK (xG 1.42, 10.87 shots per match, 4.13 on target, conversion 15%, 13% goalless matches). Considering the visitors' more stable defence and AEK's superior recent points form (1.6 points per match over the last 5 vs APOEL 0.4), I assign 55% probability to an AEK win, 25% to an APOEL win and 20% to a draw.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| APOEL | AEK Larnaca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
AEK Larnaca is 167% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - APOEL · 1.6 pts / match - AEK Larnaca
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
AEK Larnaca is 17% better for: goals scored per match.
1.47 goals / match - APOEL · 1.72 goals / match - AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca is 36% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.25 goals / match - APOEL · 0.92 goals / match - AEK Larnaca
APOEL scores in 72% of matches (26 of 36 matches), while AEK Larnaca keeps a clean sheet in 33% (12 of 36 matches).
AEK Larnaca scores in 86% of matches (31 of 36 matches), while APOEL keeps a clean sheet in 28% (10 of 36 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — APOEL
Over / Under — AEK Larnaca
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
AEK Larnaca is 40% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / match - APOEL · 1.86 pts / match - AEK Larnaca
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
APOEL - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
AEK Larnaca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 53% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (18 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
APOEL
AEK Larnaca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First Division).
Teams vs league
| APOEL | Liga | AEK Larnaca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.72 | 2.64 | • 2.64 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 47% | 43% | ▲ 53% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 48% | ▼ 42% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 28% | 31% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | • 72% | 73% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 79% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): APOEL 0 - 1 - 2 AEK Larnaca. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of APOEL vs AEK Larnaca?
The First Division match finished APOEL 1:0 AEK Larnaca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between APOEL and AEK Larnaca?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches APOEL won 0, AEK Larnaca won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before APOEL vs AEK Larnaca?
APOEL score 1.47 goals per game on average and AEK Larnaca 1.72. The First Division average is 2.64 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 47% of APOEL's matches and 53% of AEK Larnaca's.
What form are APOEL and AEK Larnaca in?
Over the last 5 games APOEL have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and AEK Larnaca 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for APOEL vs AEK Larnaca?
The statistical background for APOEL vs AEK Larnaca — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.