Athletic Carpi vs Juventus II: match statistics

The seasonal data is very limited, but Juventus II began the campaign with a 1:0 win, while Athletic Carpi lost their only match 1:3. In their last five outings, Carpi have scored slightly more goals, 7 compared with 6, but have also conceded as many as 9, which is 2 more than the visitors. Juventus II have lost just 1 of their last 5 matches and recorded 3 draws during that period, indicating a team that is difficult to beat but not particularly consistent at turning matches in their favour. Carpi have alternated between results, with 2 wins and 3 defeats, while their defence remains the main concern. With both teams averaging 1.2 points per game across their last five appearances, a closely contested draw appears to be the most likely outcome.

Both teams recorded BTTS in 3 of their last 5 matches, equating to 60% for each and matching the league-wide average of 60%. During this period, Athletic Carpi averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Juventus II scored 1.2 goals and conceded 1.4, meaning both teams regularly take part in open matches. Their attacking potential is supported by the xG figures from their last five appearances: 1.50 for the home side and 1.23 for the visitors. At the same time, Carpi allowed opponents an xG of 1.32, while Juventus II allowed 1.38, further increasing the chances of at least one goal for each team. Seasonal data is very limited and shows 0% BTTS, so greater weight should be given to the current five-match run, which points to a moderate preference for the both-teams-to-score scenario. For the BTTS market, this supports BTTS - Yes (Goal/Goal), rather than BTTS - No, which means that at least one team fails to score and does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw.

Athletic Carpi’s last five matches produced an average of 3.2 goals, with 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Over the same period, Juventus II recorded a total average of 2.6 goals per match, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.4. Both teams saw both sides score in 60% of their last five appearances, while the average xG figures stood at 1.50 for Carpi and 1.23 for Juventus II, supporting a scenario with at least two goals. The Over 1.5 goals line offers a clearer edge than higher thresholds, as recent results have been attack-minded, although the percentage of matches featuring at least three goals was 60% for Carpi and 40% for the visitors.

The strongest first-half signal favors Juventus II: in their last five matches, the visitors were leading at the break in 60% of games and did not trail in any of them, while Athletic Carpi went into half-time behind in as many as 60% of matches. Juventus II averaged 1.0 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded before the break, whereas Carpi scored 0.6 goals and allowed opponents 1.2. After half-time, however, the pattern clearly favors the hosts, who averaged 0.8 goals, while Juventus II scored only 0.2 and conceded an average of 1.0. Carpi also has the better second-half goal difference, at +1 compared with 0 for the visitors, increasing the likelihood of a turnaround from a one-goal deficit. The scenario of Juventus II leading at half-time and the match ending level best combines the visitors’ early advantage with Carpi’s greater potential to respond in the second half.