Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín: match statistics
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Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Atlético Nacional play Independiente Medellín in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The match date is 25 October 2026. Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Current form
Atlético Nacional: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Independiente Medellín: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Atlético Nacional scores 1.95 and concedes 0.87 goals per match. Independiente Medellín scores 1.42 and concedes 1.30. League average: 2.54 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Atlético Nacional 45%, Independiente Medellín 64%. Over 2.5: Atlético Nacional 61%, Independiente Medellín 61%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Atlético Nacional has higher xG: 1.76 vs 1.54. Atlético Nacional: 16.6 shots per match, Independiente Medellín: 14.6.
Match halves
Atlético Nacional: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 1.24. Independiente Medellín: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.82.
Goals by minute
Atlético Nacional: 76-90+ (20 goals). Independiente Medellín: 76-90+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Categoria Primera A: 2.54 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 7 previous H2H matches were available: 3-4-0. Average goals 3.57, BTTS 86%.
Before the match
1X2 odds
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Atlético Nacional | Independiente Medellín | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Atlético Nacional is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Atlético Nacional · 0.8 pts / match - Independiente Medellín
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atlético Nacional is 37% better for: goals scored per match.
1.95 goals / match - Atlético Nacional · 1.42 goals / match - Independiente Medellín
Atlético Nacional is 49% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.87 goals / match - Atlético Nacional · 1.3 goals / match - Independiente Medellín
Atlético Nacional scores in 71% of matches (27 of 38 matches), while Independiente Medellín keeps a clean sheet in 21% (7 of 33 matches).
Independiente Medellín scores in 82% of matches (27 of 33 matches), while Atlético Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 32% (12 of 38 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Atlético Nacional
Over / Under - Independiente Medellín
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Atlético Nacional is 56% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.42 pts / match - Atlético Nacional · 0.91 pts / match - Independiente Medellín
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Atlético Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 68%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Independiente Medellín - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (20 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +16 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Atlético Nacional
Independiente Medellín
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Atlético Nacional | Liga | Independiente Medellín | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.82 | 2.54 | ▲ 2.73 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 45% | 55% | ▲ 64% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 61% | 48% | ▲ 61% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 32% | 27% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 68% | ▲ 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 82% | 78% | ▲ 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (7): Atlético Nacional 3 - 4 - 0 Independiente Medellín. Average goals 3.57, both teams scored in 86% matches.
FAQ
When do Atlético Nacional and Independiente Medellín play?
Atlético Nacional face Independiente Medellín on 25 October 2026 in Categoria Primera A at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Nacional and Independiente Medellín?
In the last 7 head-to-head matches Atlético Nacional won 3, Independiente Medellín won 0 and 4 ended level. These games averaged 3.57 goals, with both teams scoring in 86% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín?
Atlético Nacional score 1.95 goals per game on average and Independiente Medellín 1.42. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.54 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 45% of Atlético Nacional's matches and 64% of Independiente Medellín's.
What form are Atlético Nacional and Independiente Medellín in?
Over the last 5 games Atlético Nacional have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Independiente Medellín 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.