Atlético Nacional vs Junior: match statistics
Atlético Nacional vs Junior: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Atlético Nacional played Junior in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The match was played on 1 October 2026. Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Atlético Nacional: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Junior: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Atlético Nacional scores 1.97 and concedes 0.88 goals per match. Junior scores 1.53 and concedes 1.24. League average: 2.57 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Atlético Nacional 44%, Junior 53%. Over 2.5: Atlético Nacional 62%, Junior 50%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Atlético Nacional has higher xG: 1.77 vs 1.45. Atlético Nacional: 16.7 shots per match, Junior: 13.2.
Match halves
Atlético Nacional: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 1.26. Junior: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.79.
Goals by minute
Atlético Nacional: 76-90+ (18 goals). Junior: 76-90+ (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Categoria Primera A: 2.57 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 7 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-4. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 57%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Atlético Nacional have won 87% of their home matches and remain unbeaten, while Junior have lost 44% of their away games. At home, the hosts average 2.53 goals scored from an xG of 2.02, while the visitors average 1.44 goals and an xG of 1.27 away from home, pointing to Atlético's advantage in chance creation. The defensive gap is also clear: Atlético concede an average of 0.47 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 53% of matches, whereas Junior concede 1.25 goals away. In their last five matches, Atlético have recorded 3 wins and conceded 5 goals, while Junior have won just once and conceded 10. These figures support a home win, although Junior's 10 goals in their last five matches show that the visitors can still pose a threat.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
BTTS has occurred in 53% of Atlético Nacional’s matches this season and 56% of Junior’s, so the starting point slightly favors both teams scoring. The hosts average 1.59 goals, with an xG of 1.57; they face an opponent that concedes an average of 1.64 xG, strengthening the chances of a home goal. Junior score an average of 1.44 goals with an xG of 1.27, while Atlético concede an average of 1.29 goals, making an away goal a realistic prospect as well. In their last five matches, Junior recorded BTTS in 80% of games and conceded an average of 2.0 goals, although BTTS occurred in only 40% of the hosts’ matches over the same period. This discrepancy limits confidence in the prediction, but the stronger season-long indicators and the scoring potential of both teams support a BTTS - Yes pick.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been surpassed in 88% of Atlético Nacional matches and 75% of Junior matches. The hosts average 1.59 goals scored, while the visitors concede 1.25; additionally, Atlético’s xG is 1.57, while their opponents allow chances worth 1.64 xG. Junior average 1.44 goals scored, so they could also get on the scoresheet, although Atlético allow opponents 1.21 xG. The 2.88-goal forecast supports backing at least two goals, while the 2.5 line is less certain: it has been exceeded in 53% of the hosts’ matches and 50% of the visitors’ matches.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is the most likely starting point: both teams went into the break level in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Atlético Nacional were level at half-time in 41% of their matches this season. Junior led at the break in 44% of matches, compared with 35% for Atlético Nacional, so a strong start from the visitors cannot be ruled out. However, recent form after the break favors the hosts: over their last 5 matches, they averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, while Junior conceded an average of 1.4 goals in the second half. Atlético Nacional have also won 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 for Junior, strengthening the case for a home win after a closely contested first half.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Atlético Nacional | Junior | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Atlético Nacional is 25% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Atlético Nacional · 1.6 pts / match - Junior
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atlético Nacional is 29% better for: goals scored per match.
1.97 goals / match - Atlético Nacional · 1.53 goals / match - Junior
Atlético Nacional is 41% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.88 goals / match - Atlético Nacional · 1.24 goals / match - Junior
Atlético Nacional scores in 74% of matches (25 of 34 matches), while Junior keeps a clean sheet in 29% (10 of 34 matches).
Junior scores in 79% of matches (27 of 34 matches), while Atlético Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 32% (11 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Atlético Nacional
Over / Under - Junior
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Junior is 11% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / match - Atlético Nacional · 1.53 pts / match - Junior
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Atlético Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 71%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Junior - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (18 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +15 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Atlético Nacional
Junior
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Atlético Nacional | Liga | Junior | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.85 | 2.57 | ▲ 2.76 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 44% | 55% | ▼ 53% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 62% | 49% | • 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 32% | 26% | ▲ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 68% | ▲ 79% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 85% | 78% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (7): Atlético Nacional 2 - 1 - 4 Junior. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 57% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Atlético Nacional vs Junior?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Atlético Nacional 3:1 Junior. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Nacional and Junior?
In the last 7 head-to-head matches Atlético Nacional won 2, Junior won 4 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 57% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Atlético Nacional vs Junior?
Atlético Nacional score 1.97 goals per game on average and Junior 1.53. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.57 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 44% of Atlético Nacional's matches and 53% of Junior's.
What form are Atlético Nacional and Junior in?
Over the last 5 games Atlético Nacional have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Junior 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Atlético Nacional vs Junior?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.