Auda vs Liepāja: match statistics

Auda sit 3rd, while Liepāja are 5th, with the hosts boasting a clearly stronger season record: 14 wins and 39 goals scored compared with the visitors’ 10 victories and 33 goals. Current form also favours Auda, who have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 9 goals in the process, whereas Liepāja have suffered 3 defeats and found the net just 6 times. At home, Auda average 1.91 goals per match, while Liepāja score only 0.93 away from home and fail to score in 36% of such fixtures. The hosts also create more convincing chances on their own ground, posting an average xG of 1.66, while the visitors’ defence allows opponents an xG of 1.54 and concedes an average of 1.86 goals away from home. Liepāja do average 15 shots per away match, but convert just 6% of their attempts; combined with Auda’s 15% shot-conversion rate, this further strengthens the forecast for a home win.

BTTS - Yes is primarily supported by Auda’s profile: both teams scored in 64% of their matches, compared with 50% for Liepāja and 56% on average in the league. The hosts score an average of 1.82 goals, while Liepāja concede as many as 1.86 per match, making an Auda goal highly likely. On the visitors’ side, their average goals scored stands at only 0.93, but their xG reaches 1.70, while Auda have kept a clean sheet in just 18% of matches. In Liepāja’s last five games, BTTS landed in 60% of fixtures and they produced an average of 1.83 xG, strengthening the chances of them scoring despite their low 6% shot conversion rate. The main risks to the pick are Liepāja’s 36% of matches without a goal and Auda’s BTTS rate of only 40% in their latest run, but the hosts’ attacking advantage and the visitors’ weak defence tilt the forecast towards BTTS - Yes.

Auda average 1.82 goals at home, while Liepāja concede as many as 1.86 away from home, clearly strengthening the prospect of at least two goals. The Over 1.5 goals line has landed in 91% of Auda’s matches and 79% of Liepāja’s, with the league average standing at 2.98 goals. Both teams have confirmed their attacking potential in their last five matches: their average xG figures are 1.89 and 1.83 respectively, while opponents allowed chances worth 1.36 and 1.57 xG. The hosts scored 9 goals during this period, whereas Liepāja conceded 8, which is why the expected 1.70 to 1.15 goal balance supports Over 1.5 as the strongest signal. The 2.5 line also has positive indicators, but its historical hit rates of 64% and 57% are clearly less stable.

Auda have a clear advantage in the first halves: they were leading at the break in 7 of 11 matches, or 64%, while Liepāja were trailing at half-time in 9 of 14 games, also 64%. The hosts score an average of 1.00 goals before the break and concede just 0.36, whereas the visitors score only 0.36 goals during this period and allow their opponents to score 1.07. Auda’s advantage is maintained throughout the match, as shown by their averages of 1.82 goals scored and 1.00 conceded, along with a 55% win rate, compared with Liepāja’s 0.93 goals scored, 1.86 conceded and 57% loss rate. In their last five matches, Auda have won four times and were leading at half-time in 60% of their games, while Liepāja were trailing after the first half in 60% of those matches. The most logical scenario is therefore for the hosts to take an early lead and see out the victory until full-time.