Bangor vs Carrick Rangers: match statistics

Carrick Rangers are clear favourites: they sit 6th, while Bangor are 12th, and the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 point collected by Bangor over the same period. The hosts are still without a win, have scored 0 goals in 2 league matches this season, and have managed just 2 goals in their last five outings while conceding as many as 12. At home, Bangor have lost 100% of their matches, failed to score, and recorded an average xG of 1.28 compared with 2.14 xG conceded to opponents. Carrick Rangers won their only away match so far, averaging 2 goals scored and 1 conceded, and they have yet to draw a blank on the road. The visitors also register slightly more shots per match, 11 compared with 10, and convert 18% of their attempts, which, against Bangor’s very weak defence, should translate into a victory.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Bangor’s limited scoring output: they have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game, while both teams scored in only 20% of those fixtures. The hosts have also failed to score in 50% of their matches this season, despite averaging 13 shots and recording an xG of 1.62, which points to a clear finishing problem; their shot conversion rate is just 4%. Carrick Rangers should have good conditions to find the net, as Bangor have recently conceded an average of 2.4 goals, while the visitors have scored an average of 1.4 goals with an xG of 1.41. At the same time, Carrick have conceded an average of 1.6 goals across their last five matches, but Bangor’s poor attacking output reduces the likelihood of the hosts exploiting this vulnerability. A one-sided scoring scenario is also supported by the league BTTS rate of only 38%, making a match in which Carrick score and Bangor once again fail to respond the more likely outcome.

Bangor are in very poor scoring form, averaging just 0.4 goals in their last five matches, despite creating chances worth 0.94 xG. Carrick Rangers scored 1.4 goals per game during this period, with average xG of 1.41, while Bangor conceded as many as 2.4 goals per match. Despite the hosts’ defensive weakness, neither team recorded a game with at least 4 goals in the available season data, and the league average is just 2.38 goals. The last five matches involving both teams produced Over 2.5 goals in 60% of cases, increasing the likelihood of a 2:1 or 1:2 result, but not pointing as strongly towards a very high-scoring game. Therefore, the Under 3.5 goals line has a clear edge, as the projected total of 2.35 goals remains safely below four goals.

Carrick Rangers have won 60% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.4 goals, while Bangor have recorded no wins during this period, scoring just 0.4 goals and conceding as many as 2.4 on average. The strongest signal concerns the first half: Bangor were trailing at half-time in 80% of their last five matches, averaging just 0.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded before the break. The visitors were either leading or level at half-time in 80% of those games, with an average half-time goal balance of 0.6 scored and 0.4 conceded. After the break, Bangor continue to show weak attacking output at 0.2 goals, whereas Carrick average 0.8, further supporting the scenario of the visitors holding on to or extending the lead established before half-time.