Bohemians vs Derry City: match statistics

Bohemians sit 3rd, while Derry City are sixth, and the hosts also have a clearly stronger season record overall: 12 wins and 42 goals scored compared with 7 victories and 35 goals for their opponents. At home, Bohemians create more chances, averaging 15.54 shots and 5.23 shots on target per match, with an xG of 1.73; away from home, Derry City average 10.85 shots, 3.77 shots on target and an xG of 1.31. The visitors are, however, difficult to beat, with as many as 54% of their away matches ending in a draw, although they have won only 8% of those fixtures. Derry City fail to score in 31% of away games and average 0.92 goals, which, combined with the 1.15 goals Bohemians concede at home, limits their attacking potential. Bohemians’ form over their last five matches has been poor, with just 1 win and 9 goals conceded, but home advantage and the quality of chances created still give the hosts a slight edge.

Bohemians have clear grounds to score: at home, they average 1.64 goals, produce 1.89 xG and register 5.79 shots on target per match. Derry City concede an average of 1.23 goals, while their defensive xG against is as high as 1.63, making a home goal look highly likely. The visitors score just 0.92 goals per game, but their xG of 1.31 and the fact that 69% of their matches this season have seen both teams score indicate that they are capable of responding. Bohemians have conceded an average of 1.8 goals in their last five matches, while Derry City have scored an average of 1.0 goal over the same period. The BTTS signal is moderately positive, as the hosts' attacking quality should combine with a genuine chance for the visitors to exploit their opponent's recently weaker defence.

Bohemians create significantly more chances at home, with an average xG of 1.89, while Derry City allow an average of 1.63 xG away from home. However, the visitors score only 0.92 goals per away match and have averaged 1.0 goal over their last five games, while Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their matches this season. The 3.5 line was exceeded in just 15% of Derry City’s matches and 36% of Bohemians’ games, compared with a league average of 2.72 goals. Derry City have not scored more than two goals in any match this season, while the hosts have surpassed that mark in only 14% of their appearances. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5, as the data points to approximately 2.50 goals and a limited probability of a high-scoring game.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome, as Bohemians score an average of just 0.36 goals before the break, compared with 0.46 for Derry City, while the teams’ first-half goals-for averages stand at only 0.93 and 0.85, respectively. Derry City keep a clean sheet at half-time in 62% of matches, and have been level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five games. However, the hosts’ advantage should grow after the break: Bohemians score an average of 1.29 goals in the second half, while Derry City concede 0.85, and the hosts win the second half in 50% of matches, compared with just 8% for the visitors. Bohemians’ clearly superior season-long points average of 1.64 versus 0.77, as well as their xG of 1.89 compared with Derry City’s 1.31, also support a home win. The hosts additionally average 16.5 shots and 5.79 shots on target per match, compared with 10.85 and 3.77 for the visitors, further strengthening the scenario of a turnaround after half-time.