Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay: match statistics
The match is shaping up to be extremely tight, which points towards a draw. Caernarfon Town has the home-field advantage and good scoring efficiency in their home games (averaging 2 goals), but the recent form of both teams raises doubts - the hosts have secured 1.4 points per game in their last 5 matches, while the visitors only 0.6. Connah's Quay holds a better position in the table and boasts an impressive away record (50% win rate, 43% clean sheets), yet their current winless streak (3 draws, 2 defeats) suggests form issues. The xG statistics are close for both teams, and the visitors' ball possession advantage (56%) could be neutralized by the hosts' clinical finishing. Considering all factors, a sharing of the points seems the most probable outcome.
Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Caernarfon Town played Connah's Quay in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The match was played on 13 March 2026. Final score: 2:4.
Current form
Caernarfon Town: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Connah's Quay: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Caernarfon Town scores 1.81 and concedes 1.37 goals per match. Connah's Quay scores 1.93 and concedes 1.15. League average: 2.96 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Caernarfon Town 67%, Connah's Quay 63%. Over 2.5: Caernarfon Town 59%, Connah's Quay 70%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Connah's Quay has higher xG: 1.77 vs 1.53. Caernarfon Town: 12.5 shots per match, Connah's Quay: 13.2.
Match halves
Caernarfon Town: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 1.22. Connah's Quay: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 1.11.
Goals by minute
Caernarfon Town: 76-90+ (13 goals). Connah's Quay: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Welsh Premier League: 2.96 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-2-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match is shaping up to be extremely tight, which points towards a draw. Caernarfon Town has the home-field advantage and good scoring efficiency in their home games (averaging 2 goals), but the recent form of both teams raises doubts - the hosts have secured 1.4 points per game in their last 5 matches, while the visitors only 0.6. Connah's Quay holds a better position in the table and boasts an impressive away record (50% win rate, 43% clean sheets), yet their current winless streak (3 draws, 2 defeats) suggests form issues. The xG statistics are close for both teams, and the visitors' ball possession advantage (56%) could be neutralized by the hosts' clinical finishing. Considering all factors, a sharing of the points seems the most probable outcome.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Caernarfon Town | Connah's Quay | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 45% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Caernarfon Town is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Caernarfon Town · 0.6 pts / match - Connah's Quay
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Connah's Quay is 7% better for: goals scored per match.
1.81 goals / match - Caernarfon Town · 1.93 goals / match - Connah's Quay
Connah's Quay is 19% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.37 goals / match - Caernarfon Town · 1.15 goals / match - Connah's Quay
Caernarfon Town scores in 81% of matches (22 of 27 matches), while Connah's Quay keeps a clean sheet in 30% (8 of 27 matches).
Connah's Quay scores in 85% of matches (23 of 27 matches), while Caernarfon Town keeps a clean sheet in 19% (5 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Caernarfon Town
Over / Under - Connah's Quay
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Connah's Quay is 45% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.15 pts / match - Caernarfon Town · 1.67 pts / match - Connah's Quay
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Caernarfon Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Connah's Quay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 52%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Caernarfon Town
Connah's Quay
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Caernarfon Town | Liga | Connah's Quay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.19 | 2.96 | ▲ 3.07 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 51% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 59% | 55% | ▲ 70% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 29% | • 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 73% | • 74% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 76% | ▲ 89% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Caernarfon Town 1 - 2 - 0 Connah's Quay. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay?
The Welsh Premier League match finished Caernarfon Town 2:4 Connah's Quay. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Caernarfon Town and Connah's Quay?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Caernarfon Town won 1, Connah's Quay won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay?
Caernarfon Town score 1.81 goals per game on average and Connah's Quay 1.93. The Welsh Premier League average is 2.96 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Caernarfon Town's matches and 63% of Connah's Quay's.
What form are Caernarfon Town and Connah's Quay in?
Over the last 5 games Caernarfon Town have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Connah's Quay 0-3-2 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay?
The statistical background for Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.